Offered that Australian Greenback (AUD) stays beneath 0.6245, it may check the main assist of 0.6180 earlier than a rebound is probably going. Within the longer run, AUD should break and stay beneath 0.6180 earlier than additional weak spot will be anticipated, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann word.
Probability of AUD breaking clearly 0.6180 just isn’t excessive
24-HOUR VIEW: “When AUD was buying and selling at 0.6230 in early Asian commerce yesterday, we famous ‘a slight enhance in downward momentum.’ Nevertheless, we held the view that ‘that is prone to lead to a decrease buying and selling vary of 0.6215/0.6265 as an alternative of a sustained decline.’ In London commerce, AUD fell sharply, however briefly, to 0.6188. It rebounded from the low to shut at 0.6216 (-0.24%). The rise in downward momentum just isn’t sufficient to recommend a sustained decline. Nevertheless, supplied that AUD stays beneath 0.6245 (minor resistance is at 0.6225), it may check the main assist at 0.6180 earlier than one other rebound is probably going.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted on Tuesday (07 Jan, spot at 0.6240) that AUD ‘might have discovered an interim backside at 0.6179 final week.’ Nevertheless, we famous that ‘as there was no vital enhance in upward momentum, AUD is prone to commerce in a variety in the meanwhile, anticipated to be between 0.6180 and 0.6310.’ Yesterday (Wednesday), AUD dropped briefly to 0.6188. Though the worth motion has resulted in a rise in momentum, AUD should break and stay beneath 0.6180 earlier than additional weak spot will be anticipated. At the moment, the chance of AUD breaking clearly 0.6180 just isn’t excessive, however it would stay intact so long as 0.6265 just isn’t breached within the subsequent few days.”
