The S&P’s post-election rollercoaster … how Jeff Clark is buying and selling volatility … crypto jumps after rumors of a Trump govt order … the way to revenue if 2025 is flat
Earlier than we soar in, a fast notice: Our workplaces are closed this Monday, January 20th in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
For those who need assistance from our Buyer Service Division, they’ll be completely happy to help you once we reopen on Tuesday.
On Tuesday November 5, Donald Trump received his second time period within the White Home
Shares instantly jumped larger.
By early-December, the S&P was up greater than 5%, and lots of particular person shares had climbed double-digits.
For instance, EPAM Techniques (EPAM) popped greater than 30% over the identical interval… Axon Enterprise (AXON) rose over 50%… and Tesla (TSLA) exploded roughly 90%.
So, with shares getting off to such a powerful begin after Trump’s victory, what was the overall return for the S&P 500 between November 5th and one week in the past in the present day?
0%.
Supply: TradingView
Meanwhile, many of those high-flyers are still up, but they’re down considerably from December.
What was behind the pullback?
Here’s Jeff Clark, the latest addition to our suite of expert analysts:
The answer can be found in an old saying familiar to investors of every type: “The market hates uncertainty.”
Now that we stand on the starting line for Trump 2.0, what’s actually going to happen?
Some of the burning questions include:
- Will tariffs reignite inflation?
- How will the Federal Reserve respond?
- Can Trump get more tax cuts?
- Can Trump lead the charge to beat the rest of the world in AI, electric vehicles, and crypto?
- How will the world respond to the huge change in America’s global politics?
- Can Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) really reduce the size of the federal government by $2 trillion? What will be the effects of that?
- What fights are going to happen in Congress? Remember, Trump was impeached twice in his first term.
There are a lot of unknowns, and political turmoil can create a roller coaster in the markets.
And during Trump’s first 100 days, when he has promised massive overhauls to the federal government and the economy, investors are likely to feel whiplash from the market volatility.
Now, let’s return to our S&P analysis from above.
Obviously, the market didn’t shut down last Friday, which was the bookend for our prior study of returns. What’s happened this week?
The S&P has jumped more than 3% as I write nearing lunch.
For many investors, this “volatility whiplash” is nerve-racking. But for professional traders like Jeff, it’s something very different…
Opportunity.
And under Trump 2.0, Jeff sees a lot of volatility and opportunity coming.
Trump-based volatility and the ensuing trading opportunities is what Jeff will be highlighting this coming Wednesday at 1 PM ET
Back to Jeff:
For those who know how to play volatility, Trump’s first 100 days in office could be the most profitable of your life.
It’s all about knowing how to trade volatility.
For a great visual illustrating the profit-potential of volatility, let’s look at Tilray Brands (TLRY), which is a world chief within the manufacturing and analysis of medical hashish.
As you’ll see beneath, between mid-June 2023 and this previous October, buy-and-hold traders in TLRY discovered themselves sitting on returns of 0%.
However for merchants, that very same interval in TLRY was the reward that saved giving.
Check out among the worth swings throughout that stretch.
Supply: TradingView
Accomplished traders have a huge advantage over investors during volatile markets…
While the buy-and-hold crowd grows frustrated or sticks their heads in the sand to avoid the pain of watching stomach-churning moves, traders simply ride the wave in front of them – whether that wave is up or down.
To be clear, buy-and-hold investing is a wise and appropriate decision for most investors. But to rely solely on buy-and-hold potentially means missing out on substantial returns. Not just a few bucks here and there, but truly needle-moving gains.
An example of such needle-moving gains comes from Jeff’s trading history during Trump’s first term
From Jeff:
In January 2017, Trump signed an executive order stating any U.S. pipeline work had to use American-made steel.
Traders piled into a steel rally and pushed the price of United States Steel (X) up nearly 30% in lower than a month. However beneath the floor, the corporate wasn’t in fine condition. And the manager order took longer to implement than individuals thought.
U.S. Metal’s worth collapsed simply three months after that govt order.
Supply: TradingView
However veteran traders like me caught to confirmed methods and patterns. We didn’t soar into the newest scorching pattern based mostly on headlines.
Utilizing my system, merchants might’ve executed a bullish commerce on January 25 – the day after the manager order was signed – and tripled their cash.
Then, utilizing my system to seek out bearish patterns, merchants might’ve tripled their cash once more on the draw back transfer.
Tripling your cash (twice) in 4 months is the area of merchants, not buy-and-hold traders.
For one sector that seems ripe for enormous volatility, Jeff means that merchants have a look at crypto, which is within the headlines this morning
As I write Friday, Bitcoin is up greater than 4% in the present day after studies that President-elect Donald Trump might problem an govt order declaring crypto a nationwide precedence as quickly as his first day in workplace.
Right here’s CNBC:
The strikes comply with a Bloomberg report late Thursday that Trump might create the crypto advisory council he beforehand promised, giving the trade a voice inside his administration.
A bitcoin stockpile is a part of discussions a couple of doable govt order that might cowl a number of areas of crypto coverage, the New York Occasions reported the identical day.
Like it or hate it, the crypto sector doesn’t like to remain nonetheless – which implies potential income for merchants.
Right here’s Jeff:
Take into consideration the revenue potential that can include slicing purple tape on rising tech like crypto.
Trump has already come out in full assist of constructing a strategic bitcoin reserve, which helped drive bitcoin to unprecedented ranges… and gave my very own readers a 42% achieve on certainly one of my favourite methods to play bitcoin… in simply two buying and selling days.
One of many methods Jeff trades crypto is with bitcoin miners. For a way of the chance, beneath, we have a look at the chart of main miner TeraWulf (WULF) from early-November by yesterday.
As a preview of what you’re going to see, with our beginning early-November worth as our fixed, WULF’s returns:
- Topped positive factors of greater than 40% then dropped
- Topped positive factors of 30% then dropped
- Topped positive factors of 40% a second time then dropped
- Topped positive factors of 35% then dropped
- Fell to a lack of -15% then rallied
- Fell to a loss of-15% a second time then rallied
Supply: TradingView
That’s a lot of trade potential.
Meanwhile, over the same period, what did buy-and-hold investors get for their patience?
A loss.
Again – yes, buy-and-hold is a foundational component of a long-term portfolio, but trading gains can be an enormous tailwind for wealth-creation when markets are bouncing up and down…yet going nowhere.
By the way, for you crypto enthusiasts, here’s a tip from Jeff…
Watch Bitcoin miners to offer clues about which way Bitcoin itself is about to break. Jeff recently told me that this often happens because the market discounts the price of miners ahead of time, based on what it believes to be the coming Bitcoin move.
Turning to the broad market, Jeff said wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P end 2025 flat…
And yet within that potential go-nowhere market, he could envision double-digit percentage price swings that whipsaw investors.
If so, that means buy-and-hold could have a sideways year…while traders have an abundance of opportunity.
If you’re interested in adding opportunistic trading to your investment toolkit, join Jeff this coming Wednesday at 1 PM ET. I’ll add that Jeff’s 40+ years within the enterprise have formed him right into a implausible instructor. I believe you’ll stroll away from his presentation a extra knowledgeable investor, at a minimal.
I’ll give Jeff the ultimate phrase:
Trump’s first 100 days in workplace are going to be marked by market volatility.
However I need you to start out changing the phrase “volatility” with “revenue alternatives” in your head.
That is how I’ve considered volatility over my 42-year buying and selling profession. It’s how in 2007-2009, I had 25-plus triple-digit winners for my subscribers – some in as little as someday – when everybody else was shedding their shirts.
With Trumps’s concentrate on deregulating and slicing taxes… the backing of billionaires… his enterprise mindset… and his “no holds barred” mentality that throws world markets right into a loop on a dime… you possibly can see how that is setting as much as be probably the most risky interval in our lifetimes.
However once more… most risky, to me, means most worthwhile.
So long as you’ve gotten the suitable technique and mentality.
And I’ve been working for greater than 40 years to develop the methods that I’ll share with you on Wednesday, January 22, at 1 p.m. ET. So you should definitely reserve your spot for The Most Profitable 100 Days of Your Life proper right here.
Have an excellent night,
Jeff Remsburg
