As Donald J. Trump took the oath of workplace in Washington on Monday, the gang at a jam-packed social gathering held by Ukrainian enterprise teams in Davos, Switzerland, intently watched the ceremony on big screens.
The occasion, on the sidelines of the World Financial Discussion board’s annual convention, appeared to be a show of enthusiasm for the returned American president. Audio system praised Mr. Trump and predicted that he could be a worthwhile companion for Ukraine in its conflict in opposition to Russia, regardless of his criticism of U.S. spending on the navy effort. Waiters served mini cheeseburgers on red-and-blue buns (“American meals,” attendees whispered). Just a few individuals applauded on the finish.
But the obvious optimism was a skinny veneer over deep uncertainty.
“We count on President Trump to shock us, however we have no idea what the shock shall be,” Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, mentioned on the social gathering.
Mr. Trump’s return to the White Home has plunged Europe’s enterprise leaders and policymakers right into a precarious period, and officers have been bracing for it behind the scenes. The European Fee — the European Union’s government arm — shaped a never-officially-announced group, generally colloquially known as a “Trump job drive,” which spent a lot of 2024 engaged on potential responses to modifications to American commerce and international coverage.
But it’s tough for corporations and authorities officers to know what’s bluster, or bargaining chip, and what’s actuality. They usually have discovered from the primary Trump administration that criticizing the American president too overtly would possibly accomplish little and will draw consideration and even retribution.
So corporations and governments alike are treading rigorously to curry favor with, or a minimum of keep away from angering, the mercurial president of the world’s strongest nation.
The European Fee is a working example. Workers members on the duty drive spent 2024 researching potential detailed responses to the brand new American presidency. However in public, prime officers have expressed solely a willingness to barter in response to potential tariffs and different threats, whereas vaguely warning that they’d retaliate to guard the bloc’s personal pursuits if crucial.
Ursula von der Leyen, the fee’s president, suggested in the days after Mr. Trump’s election that Europe may purchase extra American liquid pure gasoline. That’s one thing Mr. Trump has mentioned Europe should do to keep away from tariffs.
“The one factor they’ll do rapidly is purchase our oil and gasoline,” Mr. Trump reiterated to reporters within the White Home after his inauguration on Monday. “We’ll straighten that out with tariffs, or they’ve to purchase our oil and gasoline.”
However Ms. Von der Leyen has usually spoken solely in generalities about how Europe would possibly reply to commerce restrictions.
“Lots is at stake for each side,” she mentioned throughout a speech in Davos on Tuesday, including that “our first precedence” could be to barter.
“We shall be pragmatic, however we’ll all the time stand by our ideas,” she mentioned. “We’ll defend our pursuits, and uphold our values.”
The duty drive had a large remit however was closely centered on tariffs, a number of individuals aware of the group’s work mentioned. They requested anonymity to debate the personal talks.
Olof Gill, a European Fee spokesman, confirmed the group’s existence however famous that it was operational all through 2024 — effectively earlier than the precise election — and was not formally known as the “Trump job drive.”
The group was headed by Alejandro Caínzos, an experienced staff member with experience in worldwide relations. He declined to remark for this text.
One strategic motive for protecting the work comparatively quiet is that Europe seems to be attempting to maintain its choices open.
Jörn Fleck, senior director with the Europe Heart on the Atlantic Council, mentioned the bloc was being extra disciplined than it was within the first Trump administration, and “not getting drawn into political response cycles.”
“That’s an essential studying curve that the E.U. went via,” he famous.
Europe’s planning for potential commerce disruptions additionally is available in distinction to its habits within the first Trump administration, Mr. Fleck mentioned. Again then, tariffs on steel and aluminum shocked America’s allies throughout the Atlantic Ocean.
Even so, any preparations might have limits.
The scenario in 2017 was “a way more restricted menace,” mentioned Ignacio García Bercero, a former official on the Directorate Normal for Commerce of the European Fee who’s now on the analysis group Bruegel. This time, Mr. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs if he sees match, quite than one-off levies on specific industries.
And Mr. Trump’s second-term actions may span a number of coverage arenas, wrapping collectively power, commerce and protection targets.
In response, European international locations “have to get far more inventive,” Mr. Fleck mentioned.
In some methods, Mr. Trump’s arrival is hastening modifications that had been already coming. Ian Lesser, who leads the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels workplace, famous that whereas Mr. Trump’s rhetoric may hasten extra European navy spending, that change was extensively seen as wanted.
“The massive questions he raises solely reinforce current considerations,” Mr. Lesser mentioned.
Nonetheless, Mr. Trump may drive European coverage to evolve extra quickly.
On Feb. 3, the European Council — which contains the leaders of the 27 E.U. international locations — will collect at a château outside Brussels to speak about the best way ahead on safety issues, together with points like financing and customary procurement. Notably, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain will attend that occasion, the first time {that a} British premier has met with the total group because the nation voted to exit the European Union in 2016.
That highlights a chance arising from all the looming uncertainty.
Whereas many in Europe are fearful that Mr. Trump will strike one-by-one offers with international locations in Europe — cleaving the union aside — it is usually believable that strain may draw Europe and its companions nearer collectively.
“I feel that the general public will see that there’s power in negotiating as a bloc,” mentioned Beata Javorcik, chief economist on the European Financial institution for Reconstruction and Improvement, throughout an interview in a Davos cafe.
Earlier than Monday’s inauguration in Washington, François Bayrou, the French prime minister, criticized america for its “domineering coverage” stances. However within the face of that, he mentioned, European nations ought to work collectively.
“It’s a choice that’s as much as us, the French and the Europeans,” Mr. Bayrou instructed reporters in Pau, a city in southwestern France the place he’s nonetheless mayor. “As a result of clearly, with out Europe, it’s not possible to do it.”
Aurelien Breeden, Jenny Gross and Catherine Porter contributed reporting.
