Scott Bessent
It is getting simpler to attach the dots on the North American commerce combat.
Trump has scheduled 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for Tuesday at midnight however the market does not actually assume it will occur. The Trump admin has repeatedly stated it is about fentanyl however that is clearly a canard.
The query has at all times been: What does the US actually need?
Trump himself has hinted many occasions it was about commerce deficits however that is a tricky drawback to resolve. I count on him to proceed to push for reopening USMCA sooner however which may not be the large ‘ask’.
Earlier, a Bloomberg ‘supply’ report stated Mexico was open to tariffs on China to keep away from Trump duties. Now (coincidentally) Treasury Secretary Bessent is talking with Bloomberg and saying {that a} proposal from Mexico on matching US tariffs on China is ‘very attention-grabbing’ and that it might “be a pleasant gesture” if Canada does the identical.
Trace. Trace.
That is all getting fairly clear. That each one aligns with feedback earlier this week from the Mexican president who sounded very dismissive of the tariff risk.
Canada is the issue although as operating on anti-Trump, no-deal politics is taking part in very properly domestically for the Liberals, who seem like the would possibly mount a comeback for the ages beneath Mark Carney.
It units up an attention-grabbing week.
