An investor wanting a fast grounding within the challenges confronted by pharmaceutical firms may do worse than comply with the twists and turns of Indivior’s eventful historical past.
This Reckitt Benckiser spinout isn’t in the identical territory because the pharma majors, however its story incorporates many acquainted parts: blockbuster medication, battles with regulators, pipeline issues, US lawsuits, R&D pressures, patent expiries and generic threats.
The final word aim for any pharma is massive income blockbuster medication. Indivior’s bestsellers are opioid-addiction remedies Suboxone and Sublocade, which grew to become market leaders because the US’s opioid epidemic escalated. However no pharma enterprise can escape the generic drugmakers eternally and after they started to circle, Indivior’s actions led to allegations by US authorities that it had made “unsupported” claims for its merchandise to be able to delay rivals coming into its market.
These authorized wrangles value it multimillion greenback settlements. In 2016, multinational GSK needed to pay £37.6mn in fines over offers struck to fend off competitors available in the market for its then bestselling antidepressant.
Indivior has put the episode behind it and invested in R&D to broaden its portfolio. New product pipelines are one other important for pharma — heavy reliance on one therapy space is a significant threat for drug builders particularly as patents start to run out. However Indivior has discontinued one drug used to deal with schizophrenia and has provoked the ire of a significant shareholder over its failure to guard Sublocade’s place from aggressive rival Brixadi and to warn shareholders of the dimensions of the risk.
HOLD: Indivior (INDV)
The pharma group has had a tough 12 months, writes Mark Robinson.
Its share worth has dropped by over 40 per cent, full-year steering has been downwardly revised, and it suffered a public rebuke from a significant shareholder.
By the point it printed October’s third-quarter replace, the choice had been taken to streamline the group’s product providing and R&D actions, whereas inserting the emphasis on Sublocade, a therapy for opioid use dysfunction. It has additionally undertaken measures to scale back working prices.
Internet income for the flagship Sublocade product elevated by a fifth, however efficiency was stymied by aggressive pressures within the US injectables market. The gross margin contracted by 5 share factors to 78 per cent, though it was broadly flat as soon as amortisation of acquired intangible property are factored into the equation. Taking different changes into consideration, working revenue was up by 16 per cent to $312mn (£248mn).
Sadly, there are aggressive pressures within the OUD market, a degree made plain by Oaktree Capital Administration in its criticism of Indivior in direction of the tip of 2024. So, with “intensified generic pricing exercise” impacting gross sales of Suboxone (a movie that sufferers place underneath their tongue), the group is now guiding for a 17 per cent fall in internet income, the mid level of the goal vary.
The information despatched the shares down by a fifth, leaving them buying and selling at simply over half the consensus goal price at six instances ahead earnings, a mirrored image of the exterior challenges confronted by administration.
BUY: Aviva (AV.)
Earnings are rising quick on the insurance coverage firm, writes Jemma Slingo.
Aviva has elevated its adjusted working revenue by a fifth to £1.77bn, because it prepares to purchase insurance coverage rival Direct Line.
Progress has been robust throughout the FTSE 100 firm. Common insurance coverage premiums are up 12 per cent at £12.2bn, fuelled by new enterprise wins and “beneficial pricing”. In the meantime, the wealth division reported internet flows of £10.3bn, up from £8.3bn final 12 months.
Aviva additionally reported its highest 12 months of bulk buy annuity gross sales, which drove income within the retirement enterprise up by a 3rd to £9.4bn. Bulk buy annuities (BPAs) have grow to be an more and more vital characteristic of the life insurance coverage market. They’re monetary merchandise utilized by defined-benefit pension trustees to dump threat on to gamers comparable to Aviva, Simply Group and Authorized & Common. Larger rates of interest imply extra schemes at the moment are able to do that, and life insurers are reaping the rewards.
Aviva expects to stay “lively” within the BPA market and thinks volumes will stay at comparable ranges to these achieved over the previous three years — “though given the distinctive market circumstances in 2024 these volumes might not be repeated”.
The massive information for Aviva, nevertheless, is its impending buy of Direct Line for £2.7bn. The deal is on observe to shut in the course of 2025 and administration mentioned Aviva will probably be extra ‘capital gentle’ because of this. It is because the acquisition will shift Aviva extra in direction of motor and residential insurance coverage and away from capital-intensive enterprise comparable to life insurance coverage. About 55 per cent of Aviva’s working revenue got here from its capital-light companies in 2024, however that is anticipated to rise to 70 per cent after the Direct Line deal.
Within the meantime, Aviva has elevated its complete dividend for the 12 months by 7 per cent to 35.7p a share. As introduced in December, nevertheless, it has paused share buybacks in 2025 because of the Direct Line deal.
Shares in Aviva have risen by 14 per cent since January, however the primary occasion has but to come back. The acquisition of Direct Line undoubtedly poses dangers — integrating two enormous companies gained’t be straightforward, and shareholders gained’t react effectively to delays. Nevertheless, we just like the logic of the deal and the outlook for shareholder returns additional down the road.
SELL: Aston Martin Lagonda (AML)
The corporate expects to publish constructive free money circulate within the second half of 2025, however vital query marks stay, writes Christopher Akers.
Aston Martin Lagonda mentioned it could lower 5 per cent of its international workforce to help future funding, as the luxurious sports activities automobile maker pointed to expectations of a “materials enchancment” in monetary efficiency this 12 months after it delayed its first battery electrical automobile (BEV) once more and posted one other chunky loss.
The job cuts are forecast to save lots of round £25mn, with half of these coming this 12 months. Chief govt Adrian Hallmark mentioned that “our focus now shifts to operational execution and delivering monetary sustainability”.
Wholesale volumes dipped by 9 per cent to six,030 autos in 2024, however improved by 10 per cent within the second half on the again of the corporate’s new Vantage and upgraded DBX707 and V12 Vanquish fashions.
The important thing query for buyers is whether or not sustainable free money circulate can in the end be generated. The annual free money outflow worsened to £392mn, however the firm expects sequential enchancment in 2025 and constructive technology within the second half. It additionally forecasts constructive adjusted working revenue technology, helped by mid-single-digit share quantity development.
Key to the outlook is Valhalla, Aston Martin’s first mid-engined plug-in hybrid electrical automobile. Deliveries will begin within the second half. However the launch of the corporate’s first BEV is now anticipated within the “latter a part of this decade” after it was beforehand pushed again to 2026.
Regardless of vital fundraisings, the losses have stored coming and internet debt of £1.2bn is painfully excessive. The corporate’s adjusted internet leverage ratio shot up from 2.7 instances to 4.3 instances, 12 months on 12 months.
