ANZ: Gold pullback creates attractive re-entry opportunity towards $3,600/oz

ANZ sees the current retreat in gold costs from document highs as a wholesome correction. Regardless of improved US-China commerce sentiment, the medium-term macro backdrop—characterised by persistent tariff dangers, rising inflation expectations, and slowing progress—stays supportive for gold. ANZ maintains a year-end goal of USD 3,600/oz, with USD 3,000–3,200/oz recognized as a possible purchase zone.

Key Factors:

• Latest Pullback from Highs:

• Macro Circumstances Nonetheless Fragile:

  • Q1 US GDP contracted by 0.3% (saar)—the primary Q1 contraction since 2022.

  • Fed’s Beige E-book cited trade-related financial uncertainty; inflation expectations rose to 6.7% as a consequence of tariff-induced value pressures.

• Financial Coverage & Actual Charges:

  • Market now expects as much as 100bp of Fed price cuts.

  • Decrease nominal charges and rising inflation will compress actual charges, a standard tailwind for gold.

• Q1 Gold Demand Resilient:

  • Complete demand rose 1% y/y to 1,206t—the very best Q1 since 2016.

  • Funding demand surged to 552t (+170% y/y), led by a reversal in ETF flows (+227t).

  • Central banks purchased 244t, nonetheless above common regardless of a quarterly drop.

  • Jewelry demand declined 19% y/y as a consequence of excessive costs.

  • Scrap provide remained weak regardless of document costs, suggesting shoppers are holding for additional upside.

Conclusion:

ANZ stays bullish on gold, projecting USD 3,600/oz by year-end. They see USD 3,000–3,200/oz as a key assist zone the place recent funding demand is more likely to re-emerge, pushed by persistent macro uncertainty, accommodative coverage expectations, and favorable actual price dynamics.

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