Oil costs leap and fall on headline information… Louis Navellier sees price cuts coming… the age of investing with AI is right here… extra jobs going to AI/bots
Over the weekend, the U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear services – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – with B‑2 bombers, bunker–buster bombs, Tomahawks and different munitions.
In response to the U.S. actions, Iran’s parliament voted to shut the Strait of Hormuz, ushering the potential of a world oil choke level. Remaining approval will come from Iran’s Supreme Nationwide Safety Council.
We highlighted this danger in our 6/13 Digest:
About one-fifth of the world’s oil passes by it each day, making it probably the most necessary passages on the planet.
If it’s closed off or mined in retaliation to the Israeli strikes, the influence on oil costs may very well be dramatic.
Based on Natasha Kaneva, head of world commodities analysis at JP Morgan, oil might spike to $120 per barrel – presumably greater – if Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz.
As I write Monday, oil costs are easing after spiking in a single day.
Brent Crude (the European benchmark) popped greater than 5%, pushing above $81. It’s now pulled again to $72.67.
WTI Crude (the U.S. benchmark) additionally hit its highest degree since January earlier than easing. It’s all the way down to about $70.00.
For context, lower than one month in the past, WTI crude traded at $59.74. So, we’re constructing on a 20%+ rally.
Choose fossil gas leaders have additionally climbed. ConocoPhillips (COP) is up about 10% for the reason that finish of Could; and Exxon (XOM) has tacked on round 12% over the past two weeks.
This is the reason, for months, we’ve inspired buyers to construct positions in high-quality oil and natural gas stocks whereas costs had been depressed. You may’t predict the precise catalyst, however when geopolitical tensions erupt, oil can surge in a heartbeat.
Wanting ahead, as we famous in our 6/13 Digest, even when cooler heads prevail within the Center East, there are compelling structural causes to be bullish on oil stocks within the again half of 2025.
Backside line: When you maintain top-tier oil/gasoline shares, hold holding. And if costs drop within the coming weeks, take into account establishing positions within the leaders in your watch checklist. Fossil fuels will proceed to play a important position in powering our world financial system for years to return.
Why legendary investor Louis Navellier believes price cuts are quickly approaching
Eventually week’s June FOMC assembly, the Federal Reserve held rates of interest regular on the present goal price of 4.25% – 4.50%.
We coated Louis’ preliminary response (which was largely constructive), promising that we’d carry you his detailed evaluation later. Let’s circle again.
When you’re a daily Digest reader, you’re conscious of Louis’ case for why the Fed needs to be slicing charges as we speak: specifically, inflation has collapsed. Louis has gone on document in his service Growth Investor saying the Fed is ready for an “Inflation Bogeyman” that has but to materialize.
However in his newest replace, this market veteran added a second motive why the Fed wants to start slicing now: a weakening client.
From Louis:
Retail gross sales fell for the second straight month – the primary time that’s occurred since 2023:
- Constructing supplies and backyard retailer gross sales dropped 2.7%
- Gasoline station gross sales fell 2%, primarily as a result of cheaper gas
- Car gross sales slid 3.5%
However the greatest shock to me was that gross sales at bars and eating places declined 0.9%. That’s after they rose 1.2% within the earlier month.
What this tells me is that regardless of cheaper gasoline costs, shoppers had been extra cautious – they didn’t exit to eat and drink with their financial savings.
Much more troubling: Housing begins fell to their lowest degree in 5 years.
Housing is a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system. This type of drop doesn’t occur except price strain is crushing demand.
Although Louis stopped wanting predicting precisely when the Fed will lower, he says it’s coming.
And perhaps ahead of many merchants count on…
Coming into this morning, the prevailing opinion amongst merchants was that the primary lower would arrive in September.
The CME Group’s FedWatch Software had assigned a 71.8% likelihood to the Fed slicing the fed funds price by at the least one quarter-point on the September assembly.
However this morning, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that she leans towards a lower in July so long as inflation pressures stay low.
Right here’s CNBC:
In remarks for a speech in Prague, Bowman grew to become the second central banker in current days to recommend that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are more likely to have a short lived and muted influence on costs, thus paving the way in which for decrease charges.
“Ought to inflation pressures stay contained, I’d help reducing the coverage price as quickly as our subsequent assembly with a purpose to carry it nearer to its impartial setting and to maintain a wholesome labor market,” she mentioned in ready remarks.
Merchants have observed…
Yesterday, the chances of a June lower got here in at 14.5%. As I write Monday morning, they’ve jumped to just about 23%. In fact, if Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, leading to sustainably greater oil costs, that may be a monkey wrench for cuts.
We’ll hold you up to date and can carry you extra from Louis because it crosses our desk.
Extra buyers turning to AI to tell/affect their investing decisions
Earlier this month, Bloomberg ran a bit titled:
Retail Inventory Traders Can Now Imitate the Professionals With AI Buying and selling Instruments
The topline takeaway?
The retail crowd as soon as adopted the “loudest voice,” with out actually understanding superior funding ideas. They simply wished to know the following scorching inventory. However as we speak, they’re more and more turning to AI instruments, giving hedge funds a run for his or her cash.
Right here’s Bloomberg:
The democratization of AI-driven platforms would change all of that, giving retail merchants the flexibility to scan hundreds of shares and reply to real-time knowledge as quick as refined qualitative hedge funds…
Traders are already searching for alternatives in much less crowded components of the market…
Analysis and portfolio building are the principle areas the place small buyers use AI.
In March, Robinhood Markets Inc. unveiled its AI device referred to as Cortex, which summarizes all variables that have an effect on the inventory worth and may simplify the buying and selling course of, even for extra advanced methods like choices, serving to purchasers discover potential trades that align with their danger thresholds.
Final Friday, we profiled the newest AI funding device from our company companion, TradeSmith. In our opinion, it’s essentially the most superior buying and selling know-how out there to retail buyers.
Right here’s TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan:
My workforce and I at TradeSmith are releasing a robust new AI device that may pinpoint a inventory’s “revenue window” – the best timeframe to commerce a inventory on any given day.
It’s engineered on over 120 million knowledge factors, together with…
- 2 million historic worth outcomes throughout greater than 2,400 shares over seven years
- 9 million each day forecasts that mannequin worth actions throughout a 21-day horizon
- Tens of thousands and thousands of “validation” runs, which refine accuracy and confidence with every new day of information
And the outcomes are gorgeous.
In backtests, this device recognized time home windows the place shares surged so quick, it was like compressing 4, eight — even 9 — years of market beneficial properties into only a few weeks.
It’s a lot simpler to see this device in motion. So, Keith is giving a live demonstration on Wednesday at 10 a.m. eastern.
He’ll even be passing alongside the names and tickers of three new alternatives for a July 1 “revenue window” with potential to double your cash or extra in days.
If you wish to be among the many first to see this new AI in motion, here’s the link to join Keith’s early-access list.
Whether or not you be a part of Keith or not, it’s important to acknowledge that that is the place investing is headed. AI will more and more affect market choices that influence your portfolio.
Again to Bloomberg:
“The orders of magnitude of what turns into potential are mind-boggling,” mentioned Jan Szilagyi, founder and CEO of Reflexivity.
“As individuals see the form of the magic and the facility of what has been taking place within the AI house, they’ve come to understanding that this isn’t a ten% or a 20% enchancment, it’s 100 occasions distinction.”
Apart from the large buying and selling profit, we encourage you to join Keith on Wednesday simply to study extra about how shortly AI is remodeling investing. It’s eyebrow-raising – and one thing that do-it-yourselfers must carry on the radar.
One other instance of AI taking jobs – prepare for lots extra of this
Lower than two weeks in the past, information broke that Google has initiated a Voluntary Exit Program (VEP) throughout its U.S.-based divisions, together with Search, Adverts, and Core Engineering.
This follows comparable actions earlier this 12 months in different departments, akin to Platforms and Units, the place voluntary buyouts preceded vital layoffs.
The subtext right here is unmistakable – Google is reshaping its workforce to align with its AI-first future.
Roles in advertising, communications, search, and even analysis – as soon as foundational – are more and more considered as automatable. It is a calculated shift away from human-heavy capabilities and towards AI-augmented effectivity.
Let’s be candid about what’s taking place…
In case your job will be executed by software program, it’s on borrowed time.
Google, like lots of its friends, is utilizing buyouts and restructuring to clear the runway for AI-driven operations. And whereas this may occasionally enhance margins and velocity innovation, it additionally alerts a serious labor market disruption that’s solely simply starting.
Let’s return to our 10/7/24 Digest:
Think about a billiards desk with its pool balls unfold in regards to the desk randomly…
Now, think about hoisting up a nook of the desk so that every one the balls roll right into a single pocket.
That is the monetary influence of Synthetic Intelligence (AI) on world wealth.
AI is lifting the billiards desk… the pool balls are world wealth/funding capital… and the one pocket receiving all of the balls are the homeowners of the companies that properly and successfully implement AI applied sciences.
What in regards to the 5 different empty pockets?
Effectively, they’re the companies that fail or are unable to adapt to next-gen AI know-how or enterprise fashions. They’re additionally the “common Joes” who get shafted financially as AI steps in to do their jobs quicker, higher, and cheaper.
That is taking place as we predicted – and at an accelerating tempo.
Among the finest issues you are able to do is to put money into the know-how that may very well be taking your job within the coming years
In current months, we’ve introduced you a few of our analysts’ prime concepts for precisely how to do that.
Right here’s the newest from our know-how skilled Luke Lango of Innovation Investor:
The AI growth is getting into a brand new part.
As an alternative of constructing ever-larger fashions, corporations at the moment are racing to deploy them extra effectively by inferencing, which is opening the door for a brand new class of inventory market winners.
Coaching demanded huge GPUs and reminiscence. Against this, inferencing rewards low-latency, energy-efficient chips and edge compute options, shifting capital flows throughout semiconductors, knowledge facilities, and networking.
Nvidia stays dominant, however companies like AMD, Amazon, Arista, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and Astera Labs are more and more important to real-world AI deployment.
The winners of this infrastructure evolution might simply be 10X alternatives.
(Disclaimer: I personal AMD and Amazon.)
I’ll add that Luke simply went on document saying that the largest AI inventory winners of the following few years will come from a sector pushed by highly effective inferencing.
It’s one which Elon Musk is obsessive about… that President Trump has lately proven curiosity in… one which even the late, nice Steve Jobs wished to carry to fruition; his “Remaining Imaginative and prescient.”
We’re operating lengthy as we speak, however Luke simply put collectively a free, new research video on this “Final Vision” which you can check out here.
And a reminder to join Keith on Wednesday at 10 a.m. eastern to study extra about not simply investing in AI – however with AI.
Backside line: AI is altering all the pieces. Ensure you’re altering with it.
Have a superb night,
Jeff Remsburg
