Are salt batteries the future?

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And in right this moment’s Power Supply, my colleague Camilla Hodgson takes a take a look at the way forward for sodium-ion batteries — a possible rival to lithium-ion batteries — and whether or not they is perhaps overhyped.

Thanks for studying, Leslie

Sodium battery hype doesn’t match actuality, says new report

Demand for a brand new battery expertise utilizing sodium ions will develop slower than Chinese language electric-vehicle battery maker CATL expects, with hype outpacing real-world deployment, based on new evaluation.

The findings by analysis group Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, shared completely with the FT, discovered that forecasts by CATL concerning the progress of sodium-ion batteries have been unrealistic.

The analysis finds that sodium-ion batteries, which make up lower than 1 per cent of the worldwide battery market right this moment, will symbolize about 3 per cent of batteries in a decade in a base case state of affairs, and as a lot as 15.5 per cent in an “early adoption” state of affairs.

Sodium-ion batteries — that are made utilizing sodium salt — are seen as a less expensive various to lithium-based batteries, and work higher at very excessive and low temperatures. They’ve began for use in some massive, stationary vitality storage techniques, in addition to in electrical scooters in China.

Nonetheless, they’re usually much less energy-dense relative to their dimension, which has held again their use in EVs, and have change into much less cost-competitive because the hunch in lithium costs.

Demand was nonetheless “comparatively small” for what was a “nascent expertise”, mentioned Benchmark.

In April, CATL launched a brand new vary of sodium-ion batteries, which is able to begin mass manufacturing by the top of the yr. Founder and chief government Robin Zeng has mentioned he believes sodium-ion batteries may change as much as half of the marketplace for lithium-iron phosphate batteries.

However Benchmark mentioned on Tuesday that was unrealistic. Though sodium-ion batteries “have a spot within the vitality transition”, the expertise was “not able to go mass-market and the present constructive sentiment is pushed by hype”. 

In line with Benchmark, Zeng’s forecast would symbolize about 1.8 terawatt hours of sodium-ion batteries deployed by 2035. That may require “a direct breakthrough” within the expertise’s efficiency and price, and an increase in lithium costs, it mentioned. 

Against this, Benchmark’s most optimistic state of affairs is for demand to succeed in about 946 gigawatt hours by 2035, or simply beneath 1 TWh, an estimate that additionally assumed rising lithium costs amongst different issues. 

CATL and Chinese language carmaker BYD are among the many largest producers of sodium-ion batteries.

Fluctuating commodity costs have inspired improvements in battery expertise. Though lithium-iron phosphate batteries stay the dominant possibility, a spread of alternate options, together with sodium-ion and solid-state batteries, are additionally in growth.

Sodium-ion provide chains must scale as much as deliver down prices, and the expertise must be directed into areas the place it may “differentiate itself now that worth isn’t compensating for weaker efficiency”, mentioned Connor Watts, an analyst at worth reporting company Fastmarkets. 

That would come with the vitality storage market, the place they’d not be competing instantly with lithium-based batteries on worth. 

“Sodium’s continued enchancment is inevitable, however it’s going to take one other few generational enhancements earlier than western customers could be satisfied to change over,” mentioned Watts. (Camilla Hodgson)

Energy Factors

Power Supply is written and edited by Jamie Smyth, Martha Muir, Alexandra White, Kristina Shevory, Tom Wilson and Malcolm Moore, with assist from the FT’s international workforce of reporters. Attain us at energy.source@ft.com and observe us on X at @FTEnergy. Make amends for previous editions of the publication here.