What’s next for the ‘big, beautiful bill’?

Welcome to White Home Watch. I’m your host for at this time. We’ll be off on Thursday however again in your inbox subsequent week. On at this time’s agenda:

• A ‘large, lovely’ replace

• The newest menace to Harvard

• One other looming deadline

Donald Trump’s high legislative precedence, passing his flagship tax and spending invoice, is inching nearer to actuality — however some vital obstacles stay.

Right here’s the state of play at 9am in Washington: After a full day of debate, Republican senators have but to get their model of the invoice over the road. They’ll proceed at this time to attempt to win over the remaining holdouts to go the invoice by a easy majority. Vice-president JD Vance has additionally arrived on the Capitol in case he must be the tiebreaking vote.

As soon as they do this, it can then head again to the Home of Representatives to be permitted by the decrease chamber, where things could get tricky.

The Home final month handed its personal model of the laws, however a number of lawmakers have sounded alarm bells in regards to the Senate model of the invoice — elevating the chance that it might stall once more. Home Speaker Mike Johnson is contending with a razor-thin majority and might afford to lose solely a handful of votes.

If the Home disagrees with the Senate invoice, it might amend it and ship it again to the higher chamber — the place it could want yet one more vote. Or the 2 chambers might ship members to a convention committee to strike a compromise.

When each chambers agree on the textual content, it could go to Trump to be signed into legislation. In the end, it could fund an extension of the tax cuts launched in Trump’s first time period by slashing spending on healthcare and social welfare programmes.

Elon Musk, Trump’s former ally who fell out with the president final month partially over the laws, isn’t serving to with the invoice’s progress.

In posts on X yesterday, Musk slammed the invoice and threatened to launch a brand new political celebration to problem incumbents if the laws passes. Trump hit again with a threat to cancel government subsidies for Musk’s business empire.

Not nice information for Trump’s aim of getting this achieved earlier than July 4 — however in actuality not a lot will occur if Congress slips previous the self-imposed deadline.

The newest headlines

What we’re listening to

One other vital date is looming earlier than the Trump administration: July 9, when the steep tariffs that the president initially proposed in April had been slated to take impact once more, within the absence of country-specific commerce offers.

However Trump’s high commerce officers are actually scaling back their ambitions for complete reciprocal offers with international nations, in search of narrower agreements to avert the looming reimposition of US tariffs [free to read].

4 folks accustomed to the talks stated US officers had been in search of phased offers with essentially the most engaged nations as they race to search out agreements by July 9, when Trump has vowed to reimpose his harshest levies.

The brand new method marks a retreat from the White Home’s promise to strike 90 commerce offers through the 90-day pause within the sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs Trump introduced on “liberation day”.

However it additionally provides some nations an opportunity to strike modest agreements. The administration will search “agreements in precept” on a small variety of commerce disputes forward of the deadline, the folks stated.

Nevertheless, talks stay complicated.

The administration can be nonetheless contemplating imposing tariffs on crucial sectors, folks accustomed to the matter stated. The specter of new tariffs alongside openness to offers, underscores the problem negotiators have confronted — particularly since Trump, has used commerce as a cudgel to safe concessions from different nations.

Folks accustomed to the talks say the poor visibility of attainable new sectoral tariffs the US could impose at a later date are hindering talks.

It’s also unclear how Trump will set any new tariff charges on nations that don’t agree a brand new deal earlier than the July 9 deadline. The White Home declined to remark.

Viewpoints

• In financial phrases, Trump’s finances is classic bait and switch that would trigger many Republicans to lose their seats in Congress, writes Edward Luce.

• European leaders appeared broadly content material after the primary Nato summit of Trump’s second time period, however Gideon Rachman explains why the scenario in Ukraine might trigger any feel-good sentiments to soon disappear.

• Ruchir Sharma argues that the largest Trump shock on US markets is definitely that he has had so little impact.

• Trump stated final week’s ruling within the birthright citizenship case is a “monumental victory” for his administration — he might be right, says Brooke Masters in our Swamp Notes e-newsletter. [Available for Premium subscribers]