US inventory market sentiment may really feel frothy as a result of it has been a one-way TACO commerce since Trump backed down on Liberation Day tariffs however most sentiment surveys weren’t overly frothy.
That may very well be altering.
The AAII survey — which is a strong one — rose within the newest week to 45% bullish from 35.1%. That is an enormous bounce and displays a market that is hitting all-time highs nearly each day.
Nonetheless, it isn’t fairly into territory that I’d think about frothy, which is above 50%. Final 12 months it peaked in mid-July at 52.7% bullish. You’ll be aware that the S&P 500 then fell 9% in lower than a month because the market started to fret about job losses and the election. The Fed then got here to the rescue and shares snapped again.
Given the place that is, I nonetheless would not say that longs are too crowded to chase but when it rises above 52, then be cautious. Can the S&P 500 get to 6500 first? 7000?
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