As issues stand, the bloc sees world oil demand averaging 106.3 million bpd in 2026 – down from 108 million bpd final 12 months. In the meantime, they see the 2029 forecast as being 111.6 mil bpd – down 700k bpd from final 12 months’s determine. Of observe, they’ve reduce the forecasts by way of from 2026 to 2029 however maintained that 2030 will common world oil demand of 113.3 mil bpd – the identical as their forecast final 12 months.
For some context, the IEA solely sees international demand peaking at 105.6 million bpd by 2029 earlier than tailing off from 2030 onwards. The forecast numbers are fairly diverging with OPEC once more being on the extra bullish aspect. It isn’t the primary time and it will not be the final, as OPEC has needed to modify their numbers decrease for a lot of a time now since final 12 months.
On the decrease forecasts, OPEC notes that demand development is slowing in China however argues that “there isn’t a peak oil demand on the horizon”. In addition to that, OPEC can be placing out a daring name in saying that world oil demand will proceed to develop within the coming a long time to hit 122.9 million bpd by 2050. And that’s wayyyyyy above the forecasts by their friends within the business. For instance, right here is BP’s tackle the outlook for oil demand within the coming a long time:
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