Elon Musk is elevating new questions on Bitcoin’s long-term security within the face of speedy advances in quantum computing. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO turned to his AI chatbot, Grok, to learn how probably it’s that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing algorithm might be cracked by {powerful} quantum machines.
His query got here simply as IBM revealed main plans for its next-generation quantum system referred to as Blue Jay, which is predicted to achieve 2,000 world qubits by 2033.
Grok Predicts Low Danger, At Least For Now
In accordance with Grok, the chance of Bitcoin’s encryption getting cracked by quantum computers could be very low over the following 5 years. The AI estimates the possibility stays near zero throughout that interval.
However when looking to 2035, the likelihood goes up barely—although it nonetheless stays beneath 10%. These numbers are based mostly on knowledgeable assessments and present quantum capabilities.
Based mostly on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and knowledgeable surveys, the likelihood of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (through Grover’s algorithm, lowering preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is close to 0% within the subsequent 5 years and <10% by 2035. It requires tens of millions of error-corrected…
— Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025
Musk’s issues are usually not popping out of nowhere. Corporations like Google and Microsoft are creating their very own quantum platforms—Willow and Majorana 1—which have sparked debate over whether or not cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin might sooner or later be weak to assaults from these ultra-powerful techniques.
Proper now, most quantum techniques solely have round 1,000 qubits. That’s far beneath the tens of millions of error-corrected qubits scientists consider are mandatory to interrupt Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses.
Grok added that stronger algorithms like SHA-3 or SHA-512 might be used as replacements if wanted sooner or later.
Quantum Computer systems Vs. Blockchain
In the meantime, based on a recent analysis by world auditing agency Deloitte, quantum computer systems might quickly threaten the safety of the Bitcoin blockchain, with round 25% of Bitcoins at present vulnerable to being stolen by way of quantum assaults.
Finally, quantum computer systems would possibly grow to be {powerful} sufficient to interrupt your complete transaction course of, the analysts stated. To stop this, the Bitcoin community would want to undertake post-quantum cryptography—an rising however complicated answer at present being explored by cryptographers worldwide.
Picture: The Quantum Insider
IBM’s Blue Jay Provides Strain
IBM’s new system, Blue Jay, may have greater than a billion gate operations—one thing a lot past the capabilities of in the present day’s computer systems.
It’s a part of the corporate’s bigger effort to be on the forefront of quantum computing by the early 2030s. With different trade giants comparable to Google and Microsoft not far behind, the competitors is heating up.
Tesla And SpaceX Each Maintain Bitcoin
Musk’s curiosity isn’t simply tutorial. Tesla at present owns 11,500 Bitcoins, price about $1.3 billion at present costs. SpaceX additionally holds a large quantity, reportedly round $850 million price of BTC. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his private portfolio.
With the extent of these holdings, it’s no surprise that Musk wish to get forward of potential threats. His tweet is seemingly relaxed, however it signifies elevated consciousness within the tech world about how quantum advances would possibly have an effect on the world of crypto and finance.
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