- Mon: Norwegian CPI (Jul), Japanese Mountain Day Vacation
- Tue: US-China truce deadline (more likely to be prolonged), RBA Announcement (Aug), UK Jobs Report (Jun), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US CPI (Jul), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR
- Wed: German Ultimate CPI (Jul), Spanish Ultimate CPI (Jul)
- Thu: Norges Financial institution Announcement, Australian Jobs Report (Jul), UK GDP (Jun/Q2), Swedish CPIF (Jul), EZ Flash GDP (Q2) and Employment (Q2), US PPI (Jul)
- Fri: Japanese GDP (Q2), Chinese language Exercise Knowledge (Jul), US Retail Gross sales (Jul), US College of Michigan Prelim (Aug)
Potential Trump-Putin Summit (Tbc):
The Kremlin stated a US–Russia summit will happen “within the coming
days,” whereas the White Home stated it’s engaged on the small print and that
President Trump is open to the assembly. Russia’s deputy UN ambassador,
Polyanskiy, stated Russian President Putin could meet President Trump subsequent week,
however was not conscious of any deliberate assembly between Putin and Ukrainian President
Zelensky. Putin prompt the UAE as a “appropriate” venue following talks with
UAE President Al Nahyan. Kremlin aide Ushakov stated discussions will concentrate on a
Ukraine ceasefire however dismissed Washington’s point out of a trilateral summit
with Zelensky, with Putin reiterating situations for such a gathering are “far
from” being met. The summit comes amid Trump’s not too long ago shortened deadline for
Moscow to indicate progress or face new sanctions; some analysts recommend Putin could
be utilizing the talks to purchase time and blunt US measures. Kyiv and European leaders
stay cautious of any deal struck with out Ukraine current, warning it may
contain territorial concessions. Markets will probably concentrate on affirmation of
timing, venue, and thereafter, whether or not the summit produces substance. On the
flip aspect, a scarcity of progress may see extra Russian sanctions alongside
secondary sanctions for international locations doing enterprise with Russia.
Chinese language Inflation (Sat):
July CPI Y/Y is anticipated at -0.1% (prev. -0.1%), with M/M seen at
+0.3% (prev. -0.1%), whereas PPI Y/Y is forecast at -3.4% (prev. -3.6%). ING
notes deflationary pressures persist as exercise moderates, with
anti-price-competition measures unlikely to ship early aid. In the meantime,
SCMP highlights continued weak point in meals costs (June -0.3% Y/Y, fifth
month-to-month decline), pushed by extreme oversupply in pork (-8.5% Y/Y) and eggs
(-7.7%), with farmers reporting widespread losses and weak end-market demand.
Marginal enhancements are anticipated in H2, however the scope for restoration stays
restricted, in response to SCMP.
Us-China Truce Deadline (Tue):
The US-China tariff truce, set to run out on August twelfth, is probably going
to be prolonged by 90 days, in response to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on
Thursday. Following the assembly in Sweden, Beijing has confirmed consensus on
the extension, however the White Home has but to formally announce the transfer, with
USTR Greer saying the 2 sides are “working in direction of” a deal. The present pause
follows months of tariff escalation, with US duties on Chinese language imports reaching
as much as 145% since April, met in flip by Chinese language retaliatory tariffs of as much as
125% and export controls on key uncooked supplies. The choice comes as US
President Trump’s new tariffs on imports from ~90 international locations took impact on
August seventh, while extra notably for Beijing, the US imposed an additional 25%
stacked penalty on India for the import of Russian oil, with China additionally probably
within the firing line. Markets will concentrate on affirmation of the extension and
extension interval, alongside any threats of penalties, while there’s a
non-zero probability of no extension and a return to eye-watering tariffs.
RBA Announcement (Tue):
The RBA is more likely to reduce charges at its assembly subsequent week as a
current Reuters ballot confirmed all 40 economists surveyed unanimously count on the
RBA to chop the Money Charge by 25bps to three.60%, whereas cash markets are pricing in
a 98% probability of a 25bps reduce and a 2% chance of a bigger 50bps
discount. As a reminder, the RBA shocked markets on the final assembly by
pausing on charges amid vast expectations for a 25bps reduce, whereas its choice was
made by a majority of 6-3 votes and acknowledged that the Board might be attentive to
the info and evolving evaluation of dangers to information its choices. RBA additionally
famous that inflation has continued to average and the outlook stays
unsure, though the Board continues to evaluate that the dangers to inflation
have develop into extra balanced and the labour market stays robust. Moreover,
the Board remained cautious concerning the outlook, notably given the
heightened stage of uncertainty about each combination demand and provide, and it
judged that it may look forward to somewhat extra data to verify that
inflation stays on observe to achieve 2.5% on a sustainable foundation. RBA Governor
Bullock famous through the post-meeting presser that there might be extra knowledge and
information by the following assembly, and it was acceptable to have a cautious stance on easing,
however famous she is assured they’re on a path to ease additional, though timing
is the query and so they can count on charges to say no if inflation slows as
anticipated. Since then, the language from the central financial institution hasn’t supplied a lot
to shift the dial, though the info releases would help the case for a reduce
after disappointing jobs knowledge which confirmed the Unemployment Charge unexpectedly
rose in June to its highest in three and a half years of 4.3% (Prev. 4.1%),
whereas inflation continued to melt in Q2 with headline Australian CPI YY
slowing to 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.4%).
Uk Jobs Report (Tue):
Expectations are for the ILO unemployment price within the 3-month
interval to June to carry regular at 4.7%, while common earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/YY
are forecast to stay at 5.0%, in response to Reuters. As a reminder, the prior
launch confirmed the ILO unemployment price continued to tick greater, rising to
4.7% within the 3M interval to Might from 3.6%. Nonetheless, the big contraction within the
Might HMRC payrolls change was revised materially greater and wage progress remained
at an elevated price. This time round, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics
count on the upcoming report to indicate “payroll job falls easing and earnings
progress holding at a stable tempo”. Extra particularly, the consultancy is of the
view that June’s payroll drop might be revised to a smaller 8K month-to-month
fall and July’s print to come back in at -7k. For the unemployment price, PM expects
one other print of 4.7%, while vacancies seem to have stabilised and will
even be rising once more. On the wage entrance, Pantheon expects a slowdown within the 3M
Y/Y ex-bonus metric to sluggish to 4.8% from 4.9%, which might be under the MPC’s
Q2 forecast of 5.2%. From a coverage perspective, up till the August BoE coverage
announcement, it had appeared that the MPC was more and more centered on the
loosening within the labour market. Nonetheless, absent a marked deterioration within the
upcoming report, the most recent vote break up means that the stubbornness of
inflation may restrict the BoE’s easing plans. Because it stands, the following 25bps price
reduce isn’t absolutely priced till February 2026.
US CPI (Tue):
US July CPI is anticipated to rise by +0.2% M/M on the headline stage
(prev. +0.3%), with the annual price seen rising to 2.8% Y/Y from 2.7%. The core
price of inflation is anticipated to rise by +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.2%), with the
annual price of core inflation anticipated to rise to three.0% Y/Y from 2.9%. Wells
Fargo says that the info will convey additional indicators of upper tariffs pushing up
costs. “It’s nonetheless early within the worth adjustment course of to see how greater
import taxes will finally be distributed between the end-customer, home
sellers and international exporters,” the financial institution writes, “on the identical time, rising
client fatigue is making it tougher to lift costs on the whole.” Wells
Fargo expects inflation to choose up, however not ratchet greater, in H2 of this yr,
and sees each the core CPI and core PCE deflator returning to round 3% in This autumn.
Some on the Fed are extra involved concerning the labour market (Waller and Bowman),
however others nonetheless imagine that inflation is additional away from the Fed’s targets.
Excessive inflation and fears of upper inflation forward in response to tariffs is
seeing the Fed maintain a wait-and-see strategy. Nonetheless, with the current July NFP
report portray a softer image of the labour market than initially thought
(as a result of chunky downward revisions), markets are actually in search of a price reduce in
September. Fed’s Daly has since spoken on the matter, noting the Fed can’t
wait endlessly.
Norges Financial institution Announcement:
Norges Financial institution is anticipated to maintain charges regular at 4.25%, after the
Financial institution unexpectedly reduce charges by 25bps on the final assembly. Policymakers
defined their choice by suggesting core inflation declined considerably sooner
than anticipated, and as such, their inflation outlook is decrease than beforehand
anticipated. On future coverage, the Financial institution stated it “might be diminished additional within the
course of 2025”, ought to the financial system evolve as projected. Into this assembly, the
Financial institution could have two inflation studies to digest; June’s Core CPI-ATE printed a
contact above the consensus (however according to Norges Financial institution’s personal forecast). July’s
metrics are but to come back out, SEB predicts CPI-ATE (Y/Y) will print at 3.0% (vs.
Norges Financial institution forecast of three.1%). Given each SEB and Danske Financial institution name for a reduce in
September and December, a softer inflation outturn for July may have coverage
implications within the immediacy – notably within the context of a regularly
cooling labour market.
Australian Jobs Report (Thu):
There are at the moment no forecasts for the Australian jobs report,
which in June metrics missed expectations, with employment rising simply 2k (exp.
+20k) and the jobless price climbing to 4.3% (exp. 4.1%) – the very best since
late 2021. The report comes after the RBA’s August assembly, by which the
central financial institution is more likely to reduce charges. A current Reuters ballot confirmed all 40
economists surveyed unanimously count on the RBA to chop the Money Charge by 25bps to
3.60%, whereas cash markets are pricing in a 98% probability of a 25bps reduce and a
2% chance of a bigger 50bps discount. As a reminder, the RBA shocked
markets on the final assembly by pausing on charges amid vast expectations for a
25bps reduce, whereas its choice was made by a majority of 6-3 votes, and it
acknowledged that the Board might be attentive to the info and evolving evaluation of
dangers to information its choices. Markets will concentrate on whether or not the July jobs knowledge
confirms a development of soppy hiring and rising unemployment.
UK GDP (Thu):
Expectations are for M/M GDP in June to choose as much as 0.1% from -0.1%
with the Q/Q progress price anticipated to sluggish to 0.1% from 0.7%. As a reminder, the
Might launch confirmed a second M/M month-to-month decline. Albeit it adopted on from a
robust Q1, which was artificially boosted by the front-loading of anticipated
tariffs. This time round, analysts at Investec maintain an above-consensus
forecast of +0.3%, noting that “manufacturing exercise, in response to the PMI
indices, appears much less delicate than earlier than”. Moreover, the desk appears for an
growth within the providers sector and for development to rebound from the 0.6%
retracement seen in Might. A 0.3% outturn would result in a Q2 Q/Q price of 0.2% and
go away the financial system ready to develop by some 1.2%-1.3% over 2025 as an entire,
a contact above the official Spring Assertion forecast from the OBR of 1.0%. From
a coverage perspective, a delicate outturn would additional restrict obtainable headroom for
UK Chancellor Reeves and sure see desks revise up their forecasts for the
ongoing “black gap” within the UK’s funds. The implications for financial coverage
are probably much less extreme, with the MPC extra biased to see how developments on the
inflation entrance end up.
Japanese GDP (Fri):
Japanese GDP Y/Y for Q2 is anticipated to print at -0.7% (prev. +2.2%
in Q1). Industrial manufacturing is anticipated at +1.7% for June (vs -0.1% in Might).
June Industrial Manufacturing is anticipated at +1.7% (prev. -0.1%). ING notes
exports weakened sharply in Q2, with inventories additionally dragging, although providers
and personal consumption have proven restoration. The BoJ’s newest assembly saved
charges at 0.50% unanimously, reiterating readiness to hike if the financial system and
costs observe forecasts, however emphasising excessive trade-policy uncertainty. Governor
Ueda, on the post-policy presser, stated the Japan-US commerce deal was “nice
progress”, decreasing draw back dangers however with tariff impacts but to totally emerge;
he expects some destructive impact in H2, although a tariff-driven financial
nose-dive now appears unlikely. Underlying inflation is seen stalling earlier than
regularly re-accelerating, with reaching 2% “nearer than earlier than,” and wage
progress anticipated to show constructive by year-end. There was additionally confusion
concerning the US-Japan commerce deal, by which “tariff stacking” noticed
miscommunication, though on Friday, Japan’s commerce negotiator Akazawa stated
that they’ve been capable of verify a non-stacking stance from the US, and
there isn’t any discrepancy between the US and Japan that there isn’t any tariff
stacking.
Chinese language Exercise Knowledge (Fri):
There are at the moment no central expectations for the Chinese language
exercise knowledge, though the development is anticipated to indicate additional moderation in
financial exercise. ING sees industrial manufacturing slowing to ~6.2% Y/Y (prev.
6.5%), retail gross sales easing to 4.6% Y/Y (because the increase from trade-in insurance policies
peaks), and stuck asset funding holding close to 2.8% Y/Y YTD amid subdued
personal sector participation. The info, nevertheless, is lagging and will show to
be stale, contingent on the US-China tariff truce, which is ready to run out on
August twelfth. The truce is more likely to be prolonged by 90 days, in response to US
Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday. That being stated, contributors ought to be
cognizant that there’s a non-zero probability of no extension and a return to
eye-watering tariffs.
Us Retail Gross sales (Fri):
Headline retail gross sales are anticipated to rise by +0.5% M/M in July
(prev. +0.6%), with the ex-autos measure seen cooling to +0.2% M/M (prev.
+0.5%). Retail gross sales in June rose greater than anticipated, partly as a result of a shock
leap in auto gross sales. Nonetheless, Pantheon Macroeconomics famous that the info was
flattered by this achieve, regardless of falling unit gross sales and rising costs from
tariffs. Pantheon expects actual retail spending to stagnate forward, with Q3
consumption more likely to develop by lower than 1%. Individuals might be watching the
Retail Gross sales knowledge to see if there’s a slowdown in client spending, given the
current jobs report confirmed a weaker labour market than initially thought as a result of
the chunky, downward two-month web revisions.
This text initially appeared on Newsquawk.
