Funding agency Kerrisdale Capital has initiated a brief place on Aurora Innovation Inc. AUR, arguing in a brand new report that the autonomous trucking firm will “by no means turn out to be a viable business operation.” The report, titled “A Useless Finish” and printed final Tuesday, claims Aurora’s enterprise mannequin is basically flawed and its revenue potential is “puny.”
Take a look at AUR’s stock price over here.
Aurora’s Self-Drive Vans Incapable Of Level-to-Level Transport
Kerrisdale contends that Aurora’s know-how is incapable of true point-to-point autonomous delivery. As a substitute, it’s restricted to a “hub-and-spoke” system the place driverless vans deal with solely the center freeway miles, whereas manned vans are required for the costly and time-consuming first and final legs of the journey, referred to as drayage.
“Manned drayage is dear and gradual, and hub-and-spoke networks are inferior to direct manned delivery,” Kerrisdale said in a thread on X, previously referred to as Twitter. The agency argues that these logistical hurdles make autonomous trucking “slower, costlier, and fewer dependable than point-to-point manned trucking for any freight shifting underneath 1500 miles.”
Aurora’s Complete Addressable Market: A ‘Fantasy’
The report sharply criticizes Aurora’s market projections, labeling its claimed Complete Addressable Market (TAM) of 200 billion miles a “fantasy.” The report additional states, “The economics of Aurora’s autonomous enterprise mannequin are hopeless.”
Kerrisdale asserts the precise marketplace for which Aurora’s mannequin may be aggressive is merely a tenth of that dimension. This, the agency calculates, creates a complete market of about $10 billion—lower than Aurora’s present market capitalization of $13 billion.
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Drayage Prices Make Aurora’s Mannequin Uncompetitive
Moreover, Kerrisdale alleges that Aurora has misled buyers about vital hidden prices. The report cites conversations with Aurora’s personal OEM companions, who allegedly anticipate the specialised autonomous vans to be no less than 50% costlier than normal fashions.
Benzinga has contacted Aurora Innovation for remark and can replace this story with any response.
It additionally factors to the “hefty real-world prices of constructing an autonomous trucking ecosystem,” arguing that the billions in required funding for terminals haven’t materialized as a result of nobody is keen to fund it.
Kerrisdale concludes that Aurora faces a small market, big required investments, and a revenue pool that should be shared with quite a few companions. “Aurora buyers ought to anticipate a decade of steady dilution earlier than arriving at a useless finish,” the report warns.
Worth Motion
The inventory has fallen 5.49% over the past 5 periods, but it surely ended 2.91% larger on Friday. It was down 1.31% year-to-date and 37.44% over the past 12 months.
Benzinga’s Edge Inventory Rankings point out that AUR maintains a stronger worth pattern within the brief time period however a weaker worth pattern over the medium and lengthy phrases. Nevertheless, the inventory scores poorly on worth rankings. Extra efficiency particulars are available here.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Belief SPY and Invesco QQQ Belief ETF QQQ, which observe the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose on Friday. The SPY was up 1.54% at $645.31, whereas the QQQ additionally superior 1.54% to $571.97, in response to Benzinga Pro information.
On Monday, the futures of the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 indices had been buying and selling decrease.
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Disclaimer: This content material was partially produced with the assistance of AI instruments and was reviewed and printed by Benzinga editors.
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