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Can Trinidad and Tobago Escape the Oil Trap?

by Investor News Today
September 29, 2025
in Business
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Can Trinidad and Tobago Escape the Oil Trap?
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For many years, Trinidad and Tobago has relied on oil manufacturing to herald income to the small Caribbean state. Nonetheless, as its oil reserves start to dwindle, the outlook is much less sure, regardless of ongoing funding in new auctions for additional exploration. The nation is now at a crossroads, as the federal government decides whether or not to assist extra invasive exploration practices or to shift to various vitality sources and pursue financial diversification.

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In recent times, the neighbouring South American state of Guyana has attracted consideration from oil majors worldwide trying to spend money on exploration and manufacturing actions within the new oil area, the place its huge reserves are largely untapped. This has additionally drawn consideration to Trinidad and Tobago, as oil corporations hope that related reserves should still be discovered by means of extra invasive exploration actions.

Trinidad and Tobago has lengthy been the largest oil and natural gas producer in the Caribbean and is the Seventeenth-biggest pure gasoline producer worldwide. The small Caribbean nation is dwelling to one of many Western Hemisphere’s largest natural gas processing facilities – the Phoenix Park Fuel Processors Restricted, with a processing capability of just about 2 billion cubic toes per day (bcf/d). Trinidad and Tobago’s upstream oil and gasoline market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 4.4 percent between 2020 and 2030, in line with Mordor Intelligence, with large oil corporations corresponding to BP, Repsol, and Shell persevering with to function within the nation.

Nonetheless, following the introduction of sanctions on neighbouring oil large Venezuela by america, Trinidad and Tobago’s oil trade has additionally suffered. In April, the U.S. authorities’s Workplace of International Belongings Management determined to revoke two particular licenses for the Dragon and Cocuina gasoline fields within the maritime boundary between Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, with Trump stating plans to additional prohibit Venezuelan oil manufacturing.

In September, an public sale of Trinidad and Tobago’s deepwater oil and gasoline exploration and manufacturing blocks didn’t appeal to a lot curiosity from overseas traders, which noticed bids submitted on only four of the 26 areas on offer. China’s CNOOC bid on three areas, whereas a consortium of smaller vitality corporations bid on one other block. With few deepwater vitality gamers within the area, the federal government has as an alternative been encouraging producers to extend pure gasoline output to permit it to spice up its gasoline processing capability and exports.

Trinidad and Tobago has a separate settlement with American oil main Exxon Mobil to explore an area equivalent to seven ultra-deepwater blocks, which is anticipated to carry as a lot as $21.7 billion to the nation if reserves are discovered. This marks Exxon’s return to the nation after a 20-year hiatus, having left Trinidad and Tobago in 2003 after an unsuccessful offshore exploration. Exxon has carried out profitable exploration and manufacturing operations in Guyana’s Stabroek block lately, which seem to have made the oil main rethink Trinidad and Tobago’s potential. Guyana has change into the fifth-largest oil exporter in Latin America in lower than a decade, with output rising from 400,000 bpd to over 660,000 bpd in only a few months.

At current, Trinidad and Tobago doesn’t have any manufacturing from its deepwater acreage. Nonetheless, BP and Shell not too long ago accomplished seismic work at three deepwater blocks within the area, and Woodside Vitality stated it’s contemplating the event of its Calypso gasoline discovery.

Trinidad and Tobago’s oil manufacturing has fallen to lower than 54,000 bpd, from over 278,000 bpd of crude oil at its peak within the Seventies. Its only petroleum refinery closed in 2018, on account of years of mismanagement and a big fall in manufacturing by the state-owned firm Petrotrin. A latest report means that the nation’s vitality revenues fell by 48.4 % to $14.7 billion within the final fiscal yr, through which its non-energy revenues elevated by 26 % to $32.7 billion, suggesting higher financial diversification.

Trinidad and Tobago established its Heritage and Stabilisation Fund in 2007, geared toward enhancing financial diversification utilizing its oil wealth to make sure long-term financial safety. Nonetheless, the numerous drop in oil revenues lately has made the fund far much less profitable than different oil funds, corresponding to these of Norway and the UAE. In 2022, the federal government launched a green hydrogen strategy, geared toward diversifying and including worth to the nation’s vitality sector; nevertheless, that is within the nascent stage of growth.

It’s unsure what Trinidad and Tobago will do to make sure the way forward for its financial stability whereas additionally contemplating the viability of recent, unsure oil growth. A 2019 report by a U.S. consultancy estimated there have been 10 years of gas reserves left. Whereas new funding in deepwater exploration might doubtlessly increase this determine, there aren’t any ensures, and the environmental implications are massive. Nonetheless, solely higher financial diversification will alleviate the stress for the federal government to proceed drilling, which is all of the more durable to realize with out the oil revenues wanted to finance rising industries.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

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