ICE Brent was buying and selling above $65/bbl whereas NYMEX WTI was seen approaching $62/bbl this morning, amid a modest OPEC+ manufacturing enhance for November and better geopolitical dangers. Current studies recommend that Ukraine claims to have attacked one in all Russia’s largest oil refineries, Kinef oil refinery, which holds an annual processing capability of over 20mt. The assault befell over the weekend (the second time in a month), as Ukraine continues to place strain on Russia’s vitality infrastructure, ING’s commodity specialists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson word.
OPEC+ to spice up crude oil manufacturing in November
“In the meantime, OPEC+ agreed to spice up crude oil manufacturing by 137k b/d in November (just like final month), in distinction to markets anticipating a extra aggressive reintroduction of provide. The group stays cautious about growing its manufacturing share within the international oil market on predictions of an upcoming provide surplus within the fourth quarter in addition to subsequent 12 months. Final month, the IEA additionally predicted a file oil surplus for subsequent 12 months, totally on rising OPEC+ provide.”
“Baker Hughes information exhibits that the US oil rig rely noticed its first weekly decline in six weeks following a weekly drop in crude oil costs. Current information exhibits that crude oil rigs declined by two to 422 lively rigs final week. Whereas this can be a very marginal decline, it does recommend that drilling exercise could also be stabilising on rising considerations over a provide glut and fears {that a} extended US shutdown would additional damage oil costs.The general rig rely (oil and fuel mixed) stays unchanged from final week and stood at 549 within the week ending 3 October 2025. Nevertheless, it’s nonetheless down 36 from the identical time final 12 months.”
“The newest positioning information exhibits that speculators bought 11,466 a number of ICE Brent for a second consecutive week during the last reporting week, leaving them with a web lengthy place of 209,113 tons, a transfer predominantly pushed by rising gross shorts positions. In the meantime, the speculative information for NYMEX WTI will not be obtainable but, because the CFTC weekly report was not launched because of the ongoing authorities shutdown within the US.”
