Key Takeaways
Has Bitcoin’s value appreciation stored up with the availability discount from halvings?
Sure, after which some. Bitcoin’s value progress has outpaced provide discount throughout all 5 halving epochs.
Are miners at this time incomes roughly than miners in 2020?
Present miners incomes 3.125 BTC per block [$340,000] already make greater than 2020 miners who earned double the Bitcoin.
Bitcoin miners at this time earn simply 3.125 BTC per block—93.75% lower than the 50 BTC they obtained in 2012. But they’re richer than ever.
This counterintuitive actuality reveals certainly one of Bitcoin’s most fascinating financial options: much less BTC has constantly meant extra wealth.
The Bitcoin numbers inform the story
Historic knowledge from Unchained reveals a transparent sample throughout Bitcoin’s 5 halving epochs. Every epoch has ended with block rewards value extra in greenback phrases than when it began, regardless of miners receiving half the BTC halfway by.
Epoch 4 [2020-2024] demonstrates this completely. Miners began incomes 6.25 BTC per block value $54,000.
They ended the epoch incomes the identical 6.25 BTC, however value $398,000—a 637% improve. Bitcoin’s value appreciation fully overwhelmed the availability discount.
Supply: Unchained
The present Epoch 5 continues this pattern. Block rewards began at $199,000 [3.125 BTC]. With Bitcoin now buying and selling round $109,000, those self same 3.125 BTC blocks are value roughly $340,000.
We’re solely months right into a four-year epoch, but block rewards have already jumped 71%.
This implies a miner at this time incomes 3.125 BTC per block makes extra money than a 2020 miner who earned double the Bitcoin [6.25 BTC] at Epoch 4’s begin.
Why conventional economics will get Bitcoin mistaken
Customary shortage logic suggests slicing provide by 50% ought to lower income by 50%. Bitcoin defies this. As an alternative, miners who survive the preliminary halving shock typically see income will increase of 300-600% by epoch’s finish.
This creates distinctive mining economics. When the halving hits, miners face a right away 50% income lower.
Nevertheless, those that climate the storm sometimes grow to be extra worthwhile inside 12-18 months as BTC’s value adjusts to the brand new provide dynamics.
Miners are promoting regardless of file rewards
Current on-chain knowledge provides an intriguing twist. Glassnode reveals miners distributed Bitcoin at charges not seen because the FTX collapse all through September and October 2025.
This heavy promoting occurred whereas miners earned probably the most useful block rewards in BTC’s historical past.
Supply: Glassnode
A number of elements clarify this: profit-taking after BTC examined $125,000, operational prices requiring fixed {hardware} upgrades, and publicly-traded mining corporations realizing features for shareholders.
The timing, simply earlier than Bitcoin’s correction from $125,000 to present ranges, suggests some miners efficiently timed a neighborhood prime.
What comes subsequent
If patterns maintain, Epoch 5 may finish with block rewards exceeding $1 million per block, though miners obtain simply 3.125 BTC. This could require Bitcoin to achieve $320,000 or increased by 2028.
The essential query is sustainability. Every halving requires greater value multiples to take care of the sample.
Epoch 2 wanted a 55x improve, Epoch 3 wanted 13.5x, and Epoch 4 wanted 7.4x. As BTC’s market cap grows, these multiples grow to be tougher to attain.
Nevertheless, rising institutional adoption, potential sovereign treasury purchases, and BTC’s maturing position as a retailer of worth may present the required demand for a number of extra epochs.
The underside line
Whereas miners earn 93.75% much less Bitcoin than in 2012, they’re incomes a whole lot of 1000’s of {dollars} per block.
For fifteen years throughout 5 epochs, much less has meant extra in BTC. Whether or not this continues is dependent upon BTC’s potential to maintain appreciating sooner than provide decreases—however to this point, the paradox holds robust.
