The Convention Board’s newest launch confirms that US shopper confidence fell for the fifth consecutive month in December 2025. Regardless of a brief reprieve following the tip of the federal authorities shutdown, rising anxiousness over jobs and a darkening enterprise outlook have pushed a key recession indicator deeper into the hazard zone.
The Headline Numbers
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Shopper Confidence Index: Declined to 89.1 in December versus expectations of 91.0. The present month was down from a revised 92.9 in November (was beforehand reported at 88.7).
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Current Scenario Index: Plummeted by 9.5 factors to 116.8, the sharpest drop in present sentiment as views on enterprise circumstances turned adverse for the primary time since September 2024.
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Expectations Index: Held regular at 70.7. Crucially, this gauge has tracked beneath the 80.0 threshold for 11 consecutive months, a degree that traditionally alerts an impending recession.
Particulars of the Shopper Confidence numbers for December from the Convention Board
Current Scenario: A Mildly Pessimistic Flip
Customers’ evaluation of present circumstances took a notable hit this month:
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Enterprise Situations: Extra customers now view circumstances as “unhealthy” (19.1%) than “good” (18.7%).
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The Labor Market: The share of customers saying jobs are “plentiful” fell to 26.7%, whereas these saying jobs are “exhausting to get” rose to 20.8%.
Expectations: Revenue and Job Worries Deepen
Whereas the outlook for future enterprise circumstances improved barely, the “human” facet of the economic system stays beneath strain:
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Job Outlook: Extra customers anticipate fewer jobs to be out there (27.4%) in comparison with November.
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Revenue Stress: Whereas 18.4% anticipate their revenue to extend, the share of these anticipating a lower additionally rose to 14.7%.
Demographic and Political Traits
The decline in confidence was practically common throughout the board:
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Generational Divide: Confidence dipped amongst all age teams. Solely the Silent Era confirmed elevated hope, whereas Millennials and Gen Z remained essentially the most optimistic regardless of trending downward.
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Revenue Brackets: Confidence fell for nearly all brackets, except the bottom earners (beneath $15K) and highest earners (over $125K).
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Unity in Gloom: Confidence continued to fall amongst all political affiliations—Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike.
Skilled Evaluation
“Regardless of an upward revision in November associated to the tip of the shutdown, shopper confidence fell once more in December and remained nicely beneath this yr’s January peak. 4 of 5 elements of the general index fell, whereas one was at a degree signaling notable weak point.”
— Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist, The Convention Board.
