Key Notes
- Bitcoin worth reveals a contrarian habits to Bitcoin mining exercise because the hashrate sees a sharpest drop since April 2024.
- Breakeven electrical energy prices for rigs just like the Antminer S19 XP have fallen about 35% since late 2024, suggesting a drop in profitability.
- VanEck estimates almost 400,000 mining machines have been shut down.
Crypto asset supervisor VanEck has not too long ago launched a report noting that the dip in Bitcoin mining exercise means that the underside is already right here. Citing historic traits, they famous that miner capitulation has typically been bullish for Bitcoin
BTC
$90 240
24h volatility:
2.2%
Market cap:
$1.80 T
Vol. 24h:
$49.83 B
worth. BTC is at the moment buying and selling at $87,348 ranges. Nonetheless, discovering it troublesome to interrupt previous the $90K resistance level.
Bitcoin Worth Can See Upside amid Miner Capitulation, Says VanEck
In its newest report, dubbed “Mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck,” VanEck famous that the current drop in mining exercise means that the Bitcoin worth backside is right here. Citing historic traits since 2014, the analysts mentioned that Bitcoin’s 90-day ahead returns have been constructive 65% of the time in periods when community hashrate was declining.
Thus, the asset supervisor mentioned that the falling hashrate works as a contrarian bullish sign for the Bitcoin worth. It additionally displays miner capitulation with much less environment friendly miners exiting the community below monetary strain.
In accordance with VanEck, this historic sample is rising once more. They noted that Bitcoin’s hashrate has dropped about 4% within the month by Dec. 15, marking the steepest decline since April 2024.
The report additionally mentions that “when hashrate compression persists over longer durations, constructive ahead returns are inclined to happen extra typically and with better magnitude.”
Breakeven Worth for Bitcoin Miner Drops 35%
Amid the current Bitcoin worth correction, the mining profitability has additionally dropped in line. In accordance with VanEck, breakeven electrical energy prices for a mid-generation mining rig such because the Antminer S19 XP have dropped sharply, falling from about $0.12 per kilowatt-hour in late 2024 to roughly $0.077 by mid-December 2025.
Drop in Bitcoin miner breakeven worth | Supply: VanEck
Breakeven electrical energy price represents the best energy worth miners pays with out working at a loss. A declining breakeven worth reveals worsening mining economics, as solely operators with entry to cheaper electrical energy stay worthwhile.
As per VanEck, the current 4% drop in Bitcoin hashrate is the steepest since April 2024. This drop was probably brought on by the shutdown of round 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China.
They added that a good portion of this energy capability may very well be redirected to assist rising demand from synthetic intelligence workloads. In accordance with their estimates, this shift might in the end take away as a lot as 10% of Bitcoin’s whole hashrate.
VanEck estimates that almost 400,000 Bitcoin mining machines have been taken offline amid a chronic interval of weak mining profitability. The asset supervisor additionally mentioned it believes as many as 13 nations are at the moment supporting Bitcoin mining by backing from central governments.
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Bhushan is a FinTech fanatic and holds aptitude in understanding monetary markets. His curiosity in economics and finance draw his consideration in the direction of the brand new rising Blockchain Expertise and Cryptocurrency markets. He’s repeatedly in a studying course of and retains himself motivated by sharing his acquired data. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and generally discover his culinary abilities.
