The Trump administration at this time mentioned it had no talks with US oil majors about Venezuelan oil earlier than or after the assaults and seize of Maduro (that is laborious to imagine) however will communicate to them later this week.
There was loads of breathless commentary about Venezuela’s big oil reserves however they’re principally a mirage. Here’s a fast rundown on the way it works from famed oil investor John Arnold:
Buyers: JPMorgan says Venezuela has largest oil reserves
JPM: That comes from an OPEC report
OPEC: Our members self-report. Ask Venezuela
Venezuela: We get that from PDVSA
PDVSA: Hugo Chavez informed us years in the past to report that for status & now we might look unhealthy if we lowered it
Goldman Sachs is out with a word at this time attempting to make sense of the chaos.
The principle takeaway? It’s sophisticated proper now, but when the US will get the faucets open, it’s going to weigh on costs down the highway.
Listed here are the highlights from the word:
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Trump mentioned the US will “get the oil flowing the best way it ought to be” however GS notes that the embargo stays in full impact for now.
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Venezuela produced 0.93mb/d in November 2025, however GS suspects that has slipped to ~0.8mb/d just lately as a result of manufacturing shut-ins and a scarcity of cupboard space.
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Imports of Venezuelan crude by different international locations are down about 0.4mb/d year-over-year.
Goldman outlines two important situations for WTI and Brent by way of 2026:
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The Bearish Case (Manufacturing Rises): If we get a US-supported authorities, repairs to wells, and an embargo elimination, manufacturing may rise by 0.4mb/d. That places Brent/WTI at $54/50 in 2026, which is $2 beneath their base case.
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The Bullish Case (Disruption Continues): If Maduro’s cupboard digs in or infrastructure fails additional, manufacturing drops by 0.4mb/d. That pushes Brent/WTI to $58/54, or $2 above the bottom case.
The Lengthy Run View
Wanting additional out, Goldman sees this as a internet detrimental for oil costs. Venezuela sits on the world’s largest confirmed reserves. Despite the fact that the infrastructure is degraded—and GS highlights it is going to take critical money and time to repair the upgraders and energy availability—the potential is huge.
They estimate that if Venezuela manages to ramp manufacturing to 2mb/d by 2030, it represents $4 of draw back to their 2030 base case Brent forecast of $80.
Though Venezuela produced ~3mb/d at its peak within the mid-2000s and holds the world’s largest confirmed oil reserves, we imagine that any restoration in manufacturing would doubtless be gradual and partial because the infrastructure is degraded and would require sturdy incentives for substantial upstream funding. Larger restoration charges of heavy Venezuela oil will doubtless require monetary and time investments in oil-processing upgraders and enhancements in operational efficiencies, energy availability, and oil transporting infrastructure.
I might be stunned if they’ll increase manufacturing that a lot, that rapidly underneath any circumstances. It is also imprtant to notice that we’re speaking about 1.1mbpd of incremental manufacturing in a world market that is utilizing round 105mbpd.
