EURUSD futures | 4-hour chart | Analyst: Itai Levitan | investingLive.com
And it reveals that bears proceed to be in management. This comes at no shock to many people, particularly people who obtained the heads up final week at our Telegram Channel.
The EUR/USD pair is presently exhibiting persistent promoting stress close to the 1.18 stage, pushed by order movement dynamics that urged final week, as I confirmed in my evaluation, distribution fairly than accumulation. Whereas value motion could seem orderly on the floor, deeper evaluation reveals that purchasing exercise is inefficient and worth is migrating decrease, with optimistic delta bursts failing to maintain greater costs. Key technical ranges to observe embody 1.18135 (yesterday’s VWAP) and 1.1806 (at present’s VWAP), which act as resistance; so long as the worth stays beneath these markers, the bearish bias stays intact. A clear break beneath the psychologically important 1.18 deal with would additional strengthen the case for a bearish continuation, whereas sustained acceptance above VWAP ranges is required to problem vendor management.
And what aboute this week in Euro FX Futures? We see quick promoting stress on the Euro marks a pointy reversal from the broader developments noticed over the past twelve months, because the US greenback holds firmer to formally get the brand new 12 months underway. Whereas the present surroundings favors the dollar attributable to safe-haven flows, it stands in distinction to the earlier 12 months the place the Euro was the massive winner in overseas change, having rallied 13.3% in opposition to the greenback in 2025 pushed by pragmatic coverage shifts and a “much less dangerous” financial outlook. Wanting elsewhere in North America, the Canadian Greenback outlook for 2026 suggests additional upside; regardless of fears relating to US commerce coverage, analysts consider tariff dangers are overblown and that the “Loonie” may achieve one other 5% this 12 months, supported by commodity power and political stability below the Carney authorities.
EURUSD technical evaluation highlights
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EURUSD rejected strongly from the 1.18 resistance zone, reinforcing a bearish bias for the Euro.
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The EURUSD 4-hour chart reveals a transparent lack of bullish construction after a pitchfork breakdown.
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EURUSD futures are actually buying and selling beneath an anchored VWAP, urgent into decrease customary deviation territory.
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The bearish EURUSD situation stays lively except value closes a 4-hour candle above 1.17425.
Why 1.18 stays a vital EURUSD resistance
In final week’s EURUSD technical evaluation, the 1.18 stage was highlighted as a serious resistance zone for the Euro. That space represented greater than a psychological spherical quantity, it aligned with prior quantity acceptance and structural resistance seen on the EURUSD futures chart.
Worth reacted exactly as anticipated. EURUSD failed at 1.18, confirming that sellers had been lively at that stage. The short-side thesis was activated, and partial income had been already taken, as shared earlier by the investingLive Shares Telegram channel.
Since that rejection, the EURUSD development construction has weakened additional, shifting the main target towards draw back continuation fairly than consolidation.
EURUSD 4-hour chart: construction breakdown and VWAP stress (see video above)
On the 4-hour EURUSD futures chart, the Euro is presently down about 0.36%, with two key technical developments shaping the outlook:
1. Pitchfork failure on EURUSD
The upward pitchfork that had beforehand guided EURUSD greater has now been decisively misplaced. When EURUSD breaks beneath a well-respected pitchfork, it typically indicators that bullish momentum has light and that the market is transitioning right into a bearish section.
2. EURUSD buying and selling beneath anchored VWAP
The present VWAP is anchored from the December 9, 2025 pivot low, a key reference level for institutional positioning. EURUSD is now buying and selling close to the 1st decrease customary deviation of that VWAP, round 1.17205.
Traditionally, when EURUSD accepts beneath VWAP deviations after shedding construction, the market tends to lengthen decrease earlier than making an attempt any significant rebound.
EURUSD draw back ranges to watch
From a quantity profile and EURUSD technical perspective, draw back continuation stays the favored situation.
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At present’s low: roughly 1.1710
A clear break beneath this stage would sign additional bearish acceptance. -
Subsequent EURUSD assist goal: 1.16945
This stage is derived from prior EURUSD quantity profile evaluation and represents the subsequent potential response zone.
At this stage, EURUSD doesn’t present reversal traits. Worth habits stays per development continuation fairly than vendor exhaustion.
Bearish EURUSD invalidation stage
Clear invalidation is important in any EURUSD buying and selling plan.
The bearish EURUSD situation can be invalidated or significantly questioned if:
A sustained shut above that stage would recommend a lack of draw back management and open the door to a rotation again towards worth.
EURUSD buying and selling context and danger notice
At current, EURUSD is just not an extended setup. The broader EURUSD development, VWAP positioning, and quantity profile construction all argue in opposition to making an attempt to choose a backside.
As all the time:
For extra EURUSD evaluation, extra order movement views, and multi-asset protection, return to investingLive.com, the place this EURUSD video evaluation is embedded alongside broader market context.
