Bitcoin (BTC) may reclaim $100,000 as assist and rally towards $107,000 within the coming days, pushed by a mixture of supportive technical and elementary metrics.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s breakout is gaining traction, backed by bullish technicals and fading promoting stress.
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Macro alerts lean bullish, with liquidity growth and divergence between BTC and gold.
Ascending triangle, bull cross increase BTC rally odds
Bitcoin confirmed its breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle earlier this week and shifted right into a textbook post-breakout retest section.
After pushing above the sample’s higher boundary close to $95,000, BTC pulled again to retest the previous resistance as assist earlier than bouncing greater, a transfer sometimes related to legitimate breakouts relatively than false strikes.
Holding this reclaimed stage retains the “real breakout” construction intact and preserves the sample’s measured upside goal close to $107,000, derived by including the triangle’s most top to the breakout level, by February.
On the similar time, Bitcoin’s every day chart approached a possible bullish crossover between the 20-day (inexperienced) and 50-day (pink) exponential shifting averages (EMAs).
The final time BTC printed the same bull cross, the BTC worth superior by roughly 17% over the next month, strengthening the case for pattern continuation if the sign is confirmed.
Bitcoin long-term holders scale back promoting
Bitcoin’s breakout gained credibility as selling pressure from long-term holders continued to fade.
Knowledge monitoring UTXOs spent by OG Bitcoin holders, cash dormant for greater than 5 years, confirmed that distribution into current native tops had slowed materially.
As of January, the 90-day common of spent outputs peaked close to 2,300 BTC earlier within the cycle however later declined towards the 1,000 BTC stage, suggesting fewer cash hitting the market.
Earlier within the rally, OG promoting had surged to ranges properly above the earlier bull market, reflecting an unusually engaging exit window created by spot ETF demand, deeper liquidity, and institutional participation.
“This implies that OGs have additionally slowed down their promoting,” said analyst DarkFrost, including:
“Their promoting stress, which may generally be large, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing pattern now appears to lean extra towards holding relatively than distribution.”
The slowdown in OG promoting additionally aligned with the most important web Bitcoin outflows from exchanges since December 2024.
Unfavorable Bitcoin-gold correlation: Bullish for BTC?
One other macro sign aligned with the breakout thesis got here from Bitcoin’s historic relationship with gold.
In previous situations the place BTC’s correlation with gold turned unfavourable, Bitcoin rallied by a mean of 56% inside roughly two months. The lone exception in Might 2021 was pushed by exogenous shocks, together with China’s mining crackdown and compelled deleveraging.
As of 2026, the setup appeared extra favorable, supported by rising world liquidity and the tip of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening.
Associated: Bitcoin ‘groove’ to return despite gold, Nasdaq spotlight: Arthur Hayes
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