Customary Chartered trimmed its 2026 Solana goal however saved a bullish long-term view, arguing the community is shifting from memecoin hypothesis towards stablecoin-driven micropayments.
The BTC plunge could mess with this forecasts:
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Abstract:
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Customary Chartered cuts its end-2026 Solana goal to $250 from $310
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Lengthy-term roadmap unchanged, with $2,000 nonetheless pencilled in for 2030
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Financial institution sees Solana transitioning away from memecoin-driven exercise
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Stablecoin and micropayment use instances seen as key long-run drivers
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Close to-term lag vs Ethereum anticipated because the narrative shift takes maintain
Customary Chartered has lowered its end-2026 value goal for Solana, trimming its forecast to $250 from $310, whereas leaving its longer-term outlook unchanged because the financial institution argues the community is present process a structural shift reasonably than a cyclical collapse.
The downgrade displays a extra cautious view on how rapidly Solana can convert its technical benefits — notably low transaction prices and excessive throughput — into sturdy, fee-generating financial exercise. Customary Chartered’s digital belongings analysis staff framed the present drawdown as a part the place “efficiency differentiation” throughout cryptoassets ought to develop into extra seen, as an alternative of markets buying and selling as a single risk-on or risk-off block.
On the coronary heart of the revision is a altering exercise combine on the Solana community. In line with Geoffrey Kendrick, decentralised alternate exercise is rotating away from memecoin-led hypothesis towards stablecoin-based buying and selling pairs. When the financial institution initiated protection in mid-2025, Solana’s on-chain exercise was closely skewed towards memecoin buying and selling. Since then, flows have more and more shifted towards SOL–stablecoin pairs as speculative depth cooled.
Customary Chartered argues that this transition is strategically optimistic however slower to monetise in market phrases. Whereas memecoin buying and selling can generate sharp bursts of quantity, it’s unstable and cyclical. Stablecoin-based flows, against this, are extra constant however take longer to scale into significant income.
The financial institution highlighted Solana’s ultra-low charges as a key benefit for rising micropayment use instances, together with AI-driven transactions, the place even small prices can undermine viability. One metric cited within the report exhibits stablecoin turnover on Solana already operating at two to a few instances the rate seen on Ethereum, suggesting the chain could also be carving out a distinct segment in high-frequency, low-value transfers.
That potential is tied to the emergence of internet-native fee protocols, together with Coinbase-backed x402, although Customary Chartered cautioned that adoption will take time to translate into market management.
Consequently, the financial institution expects Solana to lag Ethereum by 2026–2027, even because it turns into extra constructive on Solana’s longer-run upside if micropayment demand compounds. Regardless of the near-term trim, Customary Chartered reiterated its aggressive long-term path, projecting $400 in 2027, $700 in 2028, $1,200 in 2029 and $2,000 by end-2030, with Solana anticipated to outperform Bitcoin later within the cycle.
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Solana is a high-throughput blockchain designed for quick, low-cost transactions. Its structure permits hundreds of transactions per second at minimal charges, making it engaging for decentralised buying and selling, stablecoin transfers and rising micropayment use instances.
