The previous week confirmed the accuracy of most key forecasts. Within the US, the publication of the labour market report, in addition to knowledge on enterprise exercise and inflation expectations, confirmed the heterogeneous macroeconomic image – labour market resilience was mixed with indicators of a slowdown in sure segments of the economic system. This elevated investor warning and triggered revenue taking. In Europe, PMI indicators and feedback from ECB representatives didn’t present clear indicators on financial coverage, conserving foreign money markets in a consolidation part. In commodity markets, the geopolitical issue continued to have an effect, inflicting sharp intraday fluctuations in oil and valuable metals.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair ended the week at 1.1815, trying to stabilise after uneven dynamics in January. Costs are buying and selling close to key help ranges, whereas technical indicators level to an absence of sturdy directional momentum. A breakout of the 1.1775-1.1800 space could result in a decline in direction of 1.1700, with the subsequent help within the 1.1580-1.1620 zone, adopted by 1.1470-1.1500. On the identical time, an upward rebound from the present consolidation space can’t be dominated out. A breakout of the 1.1870-1.1900 degree would affirm bullish momentum and open the best way in direction of 1.2000 and 1.2080.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
On 06 February, bitcoin fell to 2024 ranges. The low was recorded at 59,786, adopted by a rebound to the 69,000-70,000 space. Thus, the decline from the all-time excessive exceeded 50%. That is now not a correction after development, however a part of weak demand in a risk-off atmosphere. The dearth of apparent drivers is forcing institutional traders to withdraw belongings from ETFs, strengthening bearish sentiment amongst retail traders as nicely. Within the worst-case situation, by 2027 the asset value may collapse to 40,000. Throughout the upcoming week, BTC/USD could try and proceed its rise in direction of the 75,000-80,000 zone. If this resistance is damaged, the subsequent goal for bulls shall be an try and return to the 85,000-90,000 vary. Sustained buying and selling beneath 75,000-80,000 retains elevated dangers of a bearish situation.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
For the second consecutive week, Brent crude oil has been buying and selling close to the higher boundary of the long-term descending channel by which it has been transferring since October 2023. The most recent level was set at 67.63 {dollars} per barrel. Additional motion shall be formed by geopolitical components. Bulls could try to check the 72.70 resistance zone with targets at 76.15 and 77.75. If the information background favours bears, their nearest goal would be the 66.00 space, adopted by 65.00 and the 62.75-63.50 zone.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold ended the buying and selling week at 4,968 {dollars} per ounce, sustaining a large buying and selling vary and trying to recuperate after the sharp decline two weeks earlier. The general image, each elementary and technical, stays bullish, with targets at 5,180 and 5,450.
Nonetheless, one other correction in direction of the medium-term ascending help within the 4,680-4,700 space can’t be dominated out. A assured breakout beneath 4,680 would cancel the bullish situation and point out the event of a deeper correction in direction of 4,200-4,350.
📈 Key Occasions and Baseline Eventualities of the Week
Within the upcoming week within the US, the important thing occasion would be the publication on 11 February of the January labour market report, postponed because of the authorities shutdown. On Friday, market consideration can even be targeted on inflation knowledge (CPI for January). In Europe, the main focus will shift to macroeconomic statistics for This fall 2025. In commodity markets, a separate driver would be the month-to-month OPEC report (MOMR) on 11 February.
Baseline situations: EUR/USD – reasonably bullish so long as the worth holds above 1.1775. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish whereas the worth stays beneath 75,500-80,000. Brent – cautiously bearish whereas quotes stay beneath 70.50. XAU/USD – bullish whereas costs maintain above 4,680-4,700.
