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The average tax refund is 10.2% increased thus far this season, in comparison with about the identical interval in 2025, in response to the newest IRS submitting information. The year-over-year share change is down from the 14.2% increase reported last week.
As of Feb. 20, the average refund amount for particular person filers was $3,804, up from $3,453 about one 12 months prior, the IRS reported on Friday.
The entire quantity refunded was about $109 billion, up 6.9% from 2025, in response to the IRS launch. However the whole returns processed had been down by 2.4%.
Amid shopper concerns about affordability, the Trump administration has emphasised how Trump’s “big beautiful bill” might affect the dimensions of tax refunds this season.
In a late January release, the White Home mentioned common tax refunds may enhance “by $1,000 or extra,” citing a number of media experiences that reference early October analysis from funding financial institution Piper Sandler.
A Feb. 26 report from Oxford Economics estimates that tax refunds will soar by almost 20% this 12 months, with extra advantages flowing to middle- and upper-income households than typical, primarily based on modifications enacted by way of Trump’s 2025 tax cuts.
Nevertheless, particular person refunds may range primarily based on 2025 paycheck withholdings and which of Trump’s provisions affect their household’s state of affairs, specialists say.
Common tax refunds usually enhance by late February
By legislation, the IRS cannot ship refunds claiming the earned income tax credit or the refundable a part of the child tax credit, referred to as the extra little one tax credit score or ACTC, till Feb. 15.
Meaning the company’s first two filing season statistics releases, reflecting information by way of Feb. 6 and Feb. 13, respectively, didn’t embody the hundreds of thousands of refunds with these credit.
“As we head into late February, the common refund measurement pops — it will get bigger,” mentioned Andrew Lautz, director of tax coverage for the Bipartisan Coverage Middle, a nonprofit assume tank.
From Feb. 13 to Feb. 20, the common tax refund measurement jumped from $2,476 to $3,804. However with restricted tax submitting information, it is too early to make conclusions about common tax refunds this season, specialists say.
For 2025 returns, the utmost EITC is worth up to $8,046 for filers with three or extra qualifying kids. For 2024 returns, the average EITC payment was $2,916, in response to the IRS. Trump’s tax cuts didn’t change the EITC for 2025.
Trump’s laws made everlasting the next child tax credit and boosted the utmost tax break to $2,200. The refundable portion, ACTC, will proceed to regulate to inflation, however Trump’s cuts didn’t change the quantity from 2024. The ACTC is price as much as $1,700 for 2025.
