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Two disputatious tribes are at present arguing in regards to the outlook for UK tech: name them the Fullies and the Empties, relying on whether or not they view a glass as half-full or half-empty.
Fullies see huge potential for Britain as residence to a few of the highest 10 international universities, the world’s third most developed start-up ecosystem after the US and China, and the most important pool of enterprise capital in Europe (there are actually extra VC companies in London than Pret A Manger sandwich retailers). A brand new era of extremely formidable start-ups, starting from the fintech pioneer Revolut, to the autonomous driving software program firm Wayve, to the biotech spinout from Google DeepMind, Isomorphic Labs, are primed to burst on to the worldwide stage.
Empties, nevertheless, spotlight the current slowdown in start-up funding and the widening chasm between the UK and AI-infused Silicon Valley. The newest information from Dealroom discovered that British start-ups raised simply £16.2bn in 2024, the bottom whole since 2020. Against this, funding in Silicon Valley start-ups surged by 71 per cent to £65bn final 12 months. Little marvel that so many British start-ups look to maneuver to — and listing in — the US fairly than keep at residence.
There’s disappointment in Britain’s start-up world that the Labour authorities has not run extra energetically with an entrepreneurial agenda. When Labour was elected final 12 months, hopes had been excessive that the British authorities would lastly get away of its low productiveness lure and transfer past the Conservatives’ fixation with Brexit.
To be truthful, the federal government has taken some encouraging steps to advertise the AI sector. It has additionally been leaning on the pension fund business to mobilise extra progress capital. However these micro-improvements have been overshadowed by the macro-gloom ensuing from the federal government’s choices to extend taxes on jobs by elevating employers’ nationwide insurance coverage contributions. Worse, the federal government has reduce the tax reduction supplied to profitable entrepreneurs and non-doms (together with many angel traders). To many, evidently Labour remains to be extra obsessive about wealth redistribution than wealth era. What is required, based on many entrepreneurs, is a “vibe shift”.

One try to advertise a extra imaginative pro-growth agenda has include the launch of the Centre for British Progress. (Launching a think-tank is a really British response to a political problem however it might nonetheless be useful if it may possibly sharpen coverage.)
Kanishka Narayan, a Labour MP and a former VC investor, tells me: “There is no such thing as a path to equity that doesn’t run by prosperity.” The nation’s focus, he suggests, needs to be on concepts, expertise and capital. The right way to construct an R&D system that delivers tangible outcomes? The right way to entice one of the best folks on the earth to work in Britain? The right way to mobilise extra funding?
Listed below are three tentative solutions to these questions. First, poach proficient college researchers and entrepreneurs from the US, the place President Donald Trump is busy trashing the nation’s innovation machine. Many hundreds of international tech employees within the US should now be anxiously checking their visa standing. Excessive on Britain’s goal listing needs to be skilled operational managers who know how one can flip promising start-ups into international companies. “Every little thing that’s occurring within the US is a big alternative for Europe,” says Test Warner, co-founding accomplice of the VC agency Ada Ventures. “That is the second for us to draw unbelievable folks to the ecosystem right here.”
Second, Britain ought to develop nearer connections with different second-tier tech powers to use the probabilities of AI. After the US and China, the following 5 most vibrant AI international locations on the earth are the UK, India, United Arab Emirates, France and South Korea, based on Stanford College’s rankings. All 5 international locations might discover widespread curiosity in making a joint tech visa regime, pooling capital to put money into start-ups and pushing a wise international regulatory framework. Not a lot the 5 Eyes intelligence group because the 5 AIs.
Third, create new patriotic funding autos — progress capital Isas — to steer extra home retail financial savings into start-ups. Many pension fund managers seem too cautious (or hidebound by rules) to take a position even a fraction of their property into VC funds. However the reputation of crowdfunding websites that assist channel non-public financial savings into start-ups reveals there may be the urge for food to again homegrown success tales. The federal government ought to incentivise the youthful era to take action.
The simplest method to make sure that Britain’s Fullies conquer Empties is to pour extra wine into the glass.
john.thornhill@ft.com