Key takeaways:
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Fed interest-rate lower odds for as we speak at the moment are 100%.
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BTC worth could rise to all-time highs if key resistance degree at $118,000 is damaged.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose to a four-week excessive above $117,000 on Wednesday, as merchants count on volatility worth swings earlier than and after the Federal coverage choice on rate of interest cuts.
100% probability of rate of interest cuts
There’s a 96% probability of a 25 bps lower on the Sept. 17 FOMC assembly, with a 4% chance of the charges being decreased by 50 bps, based on CME’s FedWatch tool.
Polymarket betters have additionally locked in a 25 bps lower at 93% for as we speak’s FOMC assembly, with odds for a 50 bps discount at 5%.
Associated: Bitcoin stuck at $116K resistance until ‘decisively reclaimed,’ says Bitfinex
Odds from each the CME FedWatch and Polymarket are constructing for a three-cut path towards the top of the 12 months.
Nevertheless, some market commentators say that any unstable worth motion from rate of interest cuts is already priced in.
Merchants have now turned their focus to the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the FOMC assembly. Powell, who has been under pressure from US President Donald Trump to decrease rates of interest, beforehand hinted at interest cuts, saying the prevailing inflation and the labor market situation warranted changes.
Due to this fact, the market will keenly watch Powell’s language on the FOMC information convention to see if there may be any shift in tone.
“Markets are locked on the FOMC Wednesday, with a 25 bps lower priced in,” said non-public wealth supervisor Swissblock in a Tuesday submit on X, including that merchants will probably be specializing in “Powell’s stance below the highlight for hints.”
Swissblock managers additionally identified that both method, volatility is assured, including:
“Bitcoin’s Danger Index will information whether or not BTC’s bullish construction holds or if a sell-off looms on the horizon.”
In the meantime, Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC mentioned that BTC price could first rise to $118,000 on Wednesday earlier than retracing after the FOMC choice is confirmed.
The place to subsequent for BTC worth?
Bitcoin should flip resistance at $118,000 into support to proceed its uptrend towards all-time highs and ultimately into worth discovery.
“Bitcoin retains slowly grinding increased, now pushing into the 116.5K-118K resistance space,” said crypto analyst Jelle in an X submit on Wednesday, including:
“Break 118K and maintain above it, and new all-time highs are subsequent.”
Knowledge from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals BTC worth “attacking” the resistance between $117,500 and $118,500, which is a superb signal, based on MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe.
“Fairly often it is only a run earlier than a drop.”
#Bitcoin attacking the vary resistance pre-FOMC may very well be an excellent signal.
Fairly often it is only a run earlier than a drop.
We’ll see.
It is going to be enjoyable! pic.twitter.com/27GySz5j7g
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 17, 2025
Van de Poppe’s evaluation steered that if resistance round $118,000 is taken out, it might set off a run-up transfer towards the $120,000 and later to the all-time highs at $124,500.
On the draw back, a key space of curiosity lies between $116,800 and $114,500, a spread the worth has held between Sept. 10 and Sept. 16.
Under that, the subsequent transfer could be a retest of the $112,000 psychological degree, which can also be the 100-day easy transferring common.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
