Gold Is Falling But This New Gold Price Prediction Targets 40% Upside Above $5,000

Gold costs
examined file highs above $4,380 per ounce in mid-October 2025 earlier than
correcting roughly 11%, dropping under the psychological $4,000
threshold. Right this moment (Thursday), 6 November 2025, the worth is rising 0,8% and
shifting again above the essential resistance.

Regardless of the latest pullback, main monetary establishments, together with UBS, ING, and Goldman Sachs, keep aggressively bullish gold value predictions, with targets starting from $4,200 to a rare $5,600 per ounce.

On this
article, I handle why gold has been falling in latest weeks, how far it could
rebound, and supply a technical evaluation of the XAU/USD chart, primarily based on extra
than ten years of expertise as a retail investor and analyst.

The present
correction displays technical components fairly than basic
weak spot, based on Sagar Khandelwal from UBS International Wealth Administration who
said: “Outdoors technical components, we see no basic cause for the
sell-off”.

The November
2025 pullback under $4,000 stems from a number of non permanent pressures
converging concurrently.

Revenue-taking
dominated buying and selling after
gold’s meteoric rise to $4,381 in October, with merchants systematically
locking in features amassed through the 47% year-to-date rally. The U.S. Greenback
Index surged to its highest ranges since mid-2024, making gold dearer
for worldwide consumers and triggering automated promoting. Federal Reserve
officers hinted at a “increased for longer” rate of interest stance,
quickly lowering the enchantment of non-yielding property like gold.

Gold Value Correction Metrics

UBS famous
that “fading value momentum triggered a second leg down in futures open
curiosity,” however emphasised underlying demand stays exceptionally sturdy.
The correction was accompanied by short-term ETF withdrawals following file
Q3 inflows of $24 billion. Nonetheless, ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey
characterised the decline as “wholesome fairly than a development reversal”.

Gold traded
at $4,016.85 per ounce on November 6, 2025, displaying indicators of stabilization.

How Excessive Can Gold Value
Go?

My Personal Technical Evaluation Targets
$5,600

After
testing historic highs in mid-October slightly below $4,400, gold corrected to
ranges that align with vital technical assist zones. The dear metallic has
discovered sturdy assist round $3,800-$3,900 per ounce, a zone
decided by native lows mixed with the 50-day exponential shifting
common.

My
technical image suggests two distinct eventualities. If the $3,800-$3,900 assist
zone fails to carry, the following main assist lies at $3,270-$3,440 per ounce, the
consolidation vary noticed from April by way of late August 2025, the place the
200-day EMA additionally resides, separating downtrend from uptrend territory.

Nonetheless,
making use of Fibonacci extension evaluation to the development from August’s
native low by way of October’s correction reveals considerably bullish potential.
The 100% Fibonacci extension factors to $5,000 per ounce in the long run,
aligning with targets from Goldman Sachs and different main establishments.

Extra
remarkably, the 161.8% extension stage falls at $5,600, representing potential
upside of over 40% from present ranges.

UBS Maintains Bullish
Conviction Regardless of Pullback

Switzerland’s
banking big UBS printed a complete analysis notice on November 3, 2025,
reassuring buyers that gold’s trajectory stays intact. “The present
pullback within the gold market is just non permanent, and the yellow metallic’s value is
nonetheless on monitor to succeed in $4,200 per ounce, with an upside state of affairs of
intensifying geopolitical or market dangers driving it as excessive as $4,700,”
based on UBS analysts.

The
establishment explicitly said: “The much-anticipated correction has taken
a breather. Outdoors technical components, we see no basic cause for the
sell-off”. UBS strategist Sagar Khandelwal elaborated on October 20, 2025:
“Decrease actual rates of interest, a weaker greenback, rising authorities debt, and
geopolitical turmoil may push the yellow metallic to $4,700 per ounce by Q1
2026, and mining shares will do even higher”.

Maybe
most tellingly, UBS really useful aggressive positioning: “We like to purchase
the dip in gold,” the analysts mentioned, including that buyers “stay
underallocated” to the metallic. The financial institution suggests a mid-single-digit
allocation to gold inside investor portfolios, arguing that whereas
volatility
Volatility

In finance, volatility refers back to the quantity of change within the price of a monetary instrument, corresponding to commodities, currencies, or shares, over a given time interval. Primarily, volatility describes the character of an instrument’s fluctuation; a extremely unstable safety equates to massive fluctuations in value, and a low unstable safety equates to timid fluctuations in value. Volatility is a vital statistical indicator utilized by monetary merchants to help them in growing buying and selling techniques. Trad

In finance, volatility refers back to the quantity of change within the price of a monetary instrument, corresponding to commodities, currencies, or shares, over a given time interval. Primarily, volatility describes the character of an instrument’s fluctuation; a extremely unstable safety equates to massive fluctuations in value, and a low unstable safety equates to timid fluctuations in value. Volatility is a vital statistical indicator utilized by monetary merchants to help them in growing buying and selling techniques. Trad
Learn this Time period might enhance, gold stays a invaluable element of a resilient
funding technique.