Canada November producer price index +6.1% y/y vs +6.0% prior

• IPPI for November 6.1% vs 6.0% prior
• RMPI YoY 6.4% vs 5.8% prior
• IPPI MoM 0.9% vs 0.3% est and 1.5% earlier
• RMPI MoM 0.3% vs 1.6% final

Particulars of the IPPI:

• Annual Change: Gained 6.1% year-over-year, marking the 14th straight annual improve.

• Broad-Based mostly Rise: 16 out of 21 commodity teams noticed costs rise in comparison with final yr.

Abstract of the Major Drivers of Improve

Key Takeaways for 2026

• The “Core” Development: Even when stripping out risky power and petroleum, the IPPI nonetheless rose 0.4%, displaying that inflation is “sticky” throughout the manufacturing sector.

• Geopolitical Influence: International battle and commerce shifts (Russia/Ukraine and U.S./China commerce) are immediately dictating the prices for Canadian producers.

• Provide Chain Squeeze: Whereas power is the present headline driver, the large year-over-year improve in metals and meat suggests that prime enter prices will proceed to filter by way of to client costs (CPI) as we head into the brand new yr.

Particulars of the RMPI:

• The “Core” Development: Stripping out risky crude power, the RMPI surged 19.0% year-over-year, indicating large worth stress in non-energy sectors.

Abstract of the Major Drivers of RMPI Change

• Steel Ores, Concentrates, and Scrap (+1.5% Month-to-month):

  • This group was the primary driver of the month-to-month improve.

  • Valuable Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum): Rose 4.0% in November, marking an unimaginable fifteenth straight month-to-month achieve.

  • Yearly Influence: On an annual foundation, these metals are up 57.5%, reflecting a worldwide rush into safe-haven property.

• Animals and Animal Merchandise (-2.0% Month-to-month):

  • This was the most important month-to-month drop for the group in over a yr.

  • Hogs (-7.5%): Costs fell as a result of decrease manufacturing prices (rising provide) and the tip of the summer time grilling season.

  • Yearly Distinction: Regardless of the month-to-month dip, Cattle and Calves stay 20.9% dearer than they had been a yr in the past.

• Crude Power Merchandise (-0.5% Month-to-month / -15.0%+ Yearly):

  • Power acted as a “brake” on inflation. Standard Crude Oil fell 0.9% in November and is down 15.2% year-over-year.

  • The Trigger: Large world oil oversupply all through 2025 has offset the “geopolitical danger premium” brought on by the Russia-Ukraine battle.

Key Takeaways for 2026

• A “Two-Velocity” Enter Market: Producers counting on metals and livestock are dealing with excessive value will increase (+19.0% core RMPI), whereas these counting on oil and gasoline are seeing vital reduction.

• Persistent Steel Surge: With 15 months of consecutive positive aspects in treasured metals, the “base value” for electronics, jewellery, and industrial elements has shifted structurally increased.

• Provide vs. Demand: The drop in hog costs reveals that when manufacturing prices fall and provide will increase, costs can really retreat, providing a uncommon little bit of deflationary information in an in any other case scorching report.

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What’s it?

In easy phrases, IPPI and RMPI are the 2 halves of Canada’s “Producer Worth Index.”¹ They observe inflation on the enterprise degree reasonably than the grocery retailer degree.²

Right here is the breakdown of what every represents:

1. RMPI (Uncooked Supplies Worth Index)

What it’s: This measures the worth of inputs. It tracks what Canadian producers must pay to get uncooked supplies into their factories.

What’s included: Uncooked minerals, steel ores, crude oil, logs, and unprocessed agricultural merchandise (like wheat or cattle).

Key Element: It is a “purchaser’s worth.” It consists of the price of the merchandise plus the additional stuff it takes to get it to the manufacturing facility door, like transportation, customized duties, and taxes.

2. IPPI (Industrial Product Worth Index)

What it’s: This measures the worth of outputs. It tracks the cash producers obtain for the products they’ve completed making as they depart the constructing.

What’s included: Completed or semi-finished items like gasoline, lumber, processed meals (like meat), and equipment.

Key Element: It is a “manufacturing facility gate worth.” It represents solely what the producer really receives. It particularly excludes taxes, transportation, and retail markups.

The Primary Variations at a Look