Key Notes
- Hayes says the US president is strongly targeted on the economic system, not morality.
- Credit score development and liquidity matter extra for Bitcoin than single geopolitical occasions, he argues.
- The analyst notes that oil costs and inflation influence each elections and the costs of dangerous property.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, revealed his newest essay, arguing that the US takeover of Venezuelan oil isn’t ethical information however slightly targeted on the nation’s economic system.
What issues for Bitcoin and markets, he argues, is how political leaders handle the economic system, credit score, and inflation.
“Suavemente” is an essay to explains why Pax Americana’s colonisation of Venezuela for its oil means it is time for $BTC to pump!https://t.co/uU4oQcT6FT pic.twitter.com/XgmRGgoYN0
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 6, 2026
Hayes declined the ethical and geopolitical narratives which have been dominating the media because the arrest of the Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
The shapeer BitMEX CEO added that US President Donald Trump is strongly targeted on conserving the economic system sturdy and inflation managed, that are important for future elections, hinting on the 2026 midterms and the 2028 run.
Based on Hayes, the typical voter cares most about how rich or financially safe they really feel after they solid their poll. That feeling relies upon closely on nominal GDP, credit score availability, and the worth of gasoline.
The Venezuelan Sign
Hayes believes that, for Trump and the Republicans, getting access to Venezuelan oil reserves may assist decrease power prices for US shoppers.
Based on his evaluation, if the gasoline costs decline whereas the GDP rises, voters would naturally really feel financially higher. This could possibly be a probably bullish catalyst for dangerous property like Bitcoin
BTC
$92 079
24h volatility:
1.6%
Market cap:
$1.84 T
Vol. 24h:
$28.63 B
.
Notably, Hayes has been investing heavily in crypto assets like Ethereum
ETH
$3 158
24h volatility:
2.1%
Market cap:
$380.94 B
Vol. 24h:
$15.67 B
, ETHENA (ENA), ETHFI (ETHFI), and PENDLE (PENDLE). Arkham data reveals that the BitMEX co-founder’s altcoin holdings are at the moment price over $75 million.
In Hayes’s view, markets don’t rise due to geopolitics however slightly due to credit score development and liquidity.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have seen a big rally because the arrest of Venezuela’s president, with on-chain knowledge exhibiting no indicators of panic. BTC rose by 0.8% up to now 24 hours to $93,300. ETH gained 1.85% and is buying and selling at $3,220 on the time of writing.
The general market sentiment is sitting within the impartial zone for the primary time since late October. Bitcoin’s value response can be tied to macroeconomic forces slightly than the ethical dimension of geopolitical occasions, based on Hayes.
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is dedicated to offering unbiased and clear reporting. This text goals to ship correct and well timed data however shouldn’t be taken as monetary or funding recommendation. Since market circumstances can change quickly, we encourage you to confirm data by yourself and seek the advice of with knowledgeable earlier than making any choices primarily based on this content material.
Wahid has been analyzing and reporting on the most recent developments within the decentralized ecosystem since 2019. He has over 4,000 articles to his title and his work has been featured on a few of the main retailers together with Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Cointelegraph, and Benzinga. Apart from reporting, Wahid likes to attach the dots between DeFi and macro on his e-newsletter, On-chain Monk.
