A brand new Bitcoin worth prediction has been put ahead following a long-term technical evaluation shared on the social media platform X by crypto analyst Leshka.eth. The evaluation compares Bitcoin’s present construction on the weekly timeframe to the 2021 market peak, displaying how worth habits is repeating an identical pattern.
Primarily based on how Bitcoin has interacted with a rising multi-year channel in earlier cycles, the evaluation proposes a projection as to how Bitcoin may very well be setting up for a powerful corrective transfer that sends the worth again to as little as $30,000.
Bitcoin Weekly Construction About To Break
Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s worth motion on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart exhibits that the main cryptocurrency has been buying and selling with greater highs and better lows since 2018. Curiously, this pattern of upper highs has led to repeated interplay with a rising resistance trendline that has outlined each main cycle high.
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As proven within the chart under, Bitcoin pushes into this higher boundary throughout every bull market, solely to be rejected as soon as momentum fades. These rejection factors are clearly marked throughout a number of cycles, together with the 2017 and 2021 peaks. This repeated failure is a defining characteristic of Bitcoin’s macro cycles of exhaustion after extended upside enlargement.
Bitcoin as soon as once more rallied into this similar long-term trendline when it broke to new all-time highs in October 2025 earlier than stalling and rolling over. Bitcoin’s worth failed to carry above the trendline and has corrected by about 30% since then. The main cryptocurrency is now trading below $90,000, and this technical outlook introduces the likelihood that the present pullback isn’t but full and will prolong additional.
Bitcoin Weekly Candlestick Chart. Source: @leshka_eth on X
Bitcoin Crash Extension To $30,000?
The chart additionally highlights the depth of prior bear market declines as soon as Bitcoin was rejected at this long-term construction. After the 2017 cycle high, Bitcoin fell roughly 84.99% from peak to trough. Following the 2021 excessive, Bitcoin as soon as once more declined by about 77.47% earlier than discovering a backside close to the decrease boundary of the broader rising channel.
Primarily based on the present setup, the projected draw back transfer marked on the chart measures roughly 72.86%. Making use of a drawdown of that magnitude from the latest cycle excessive locations Bitcoin’s potential backside round $30,000.
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Curiously, Grok AI supplied a more optimistic interpretation of Bitcoin’s near-term outlook primarily based on responses to questions below the identical technical put up. In line with Grok, aggregated views from sources reminiscent of CNBC, Reddit, and Forbes counsel that the chance of Bitcoin dropping into the $30,000 to $40,000 vary is comparatively low, estimated at round 15% to 25% by bearish cycle fashions.
However, many analysts as a substitute expect higher price floors, usually above $50,000. Some long-term projections extend over $200,000, with names like Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao predicting $200,000 and Tom Lee predicting $250,000 in 2026.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
