The important thing market affect right this moment is the closure of Chinese language mainland markets and half days on ly in Hong Kong and Singapore (extra element under the screenshot).
The calendar lists China home value knowledge due right this moment. These had been revealed final week:
Japanese financial progress knowledge shall be eyed. Fourth-quarter GDP is anticipated to have expanded by 0.4% from the earlier quarter, lifting annual progress to 1.6%. Analysts see enchancment coming from a restoration in building exercise because the drag from short-term security guidelines eases, alongside firmer export efficiency supported by robust world demand for semiconductors.
Commerce figures for January level to ongoing momentum in chip exports. Beneficial calendar results and a low comparability base are additionally more likely to flatter headline export progress charges.
The enhance from extra fiscal spending is projected to point out up extra clearly within the first quarter of 2026 moderately than within the fourth quarter knowledge. In the meantime, any fallout from tensions between China and Japan shouldn’t be anticipated to have had a significant affect on This autumn outcomes.
General, regular political circumstances and resilient semiconductor demand are considered as key helps for each manufacturing output and providers exercise.
I posted all this final week, repeating now ICYMI:
Lunar New 12 months (LNY) 2026 brings skinny liquidity and China-offshore value discovery, with journey/consumption the important thing narrative.
Abstract:
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Lunar New 12 months 2026 (12 months of the Horse) falls on Tuesday 17 Feb.
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Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed Feb 16–23, reopening Tue Feb 24.
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Hong Kong has half-day buying and selling on Mon Feb 16, is closed Feb 17–19, and reopens Fri Feb 20.
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Singapore (SGX) has half-day buying and selling on Mon Feb 16 and is closed Feb 17–18.
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China is operating an prolonged nine-day Spring Competition vacation (Feb 15–23) with officers anticipating a document journey surge, supportive for consumption narratives, however liquidity shall be skinny.
Lunar New 12 months 2026 lands on Tuesday 17 February and, as traditional, it’s going to reshape buying and selling circumstances throughout mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore, with liquidity results usually as necessary because the headlines.
Onshore, China’s fairness market enters its greatest scheduled buying and selling interruption of the yr.
- The Shenzhen Inventory Trade calendar exhibits the market closed from Monday 16 February via Monday 23 February, resuming Tuesday 24 February.
- The Shanghai Inventory Trade (SSE) shall be closed for the 2026 Lunar New 12 months (Spring Competition) from Monday, February 16, 2026, to Monday 23 Feb 2026 (inclusive) Reopens: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026
With A-shares shut, value discovery shifts offshore (CNH, H-shares, ADRs, commodities proxies), whereas onshore macro/credit score headlines can “bottle up” and reprice rapidly when home buying and selling resumes.
This yr the macro overlay is the prolonged nine-day public vacation (Feb 15–23) and a coverage push to encourage spending and journey, with officers projecting a document journey rush. That tends to assist short-term themes in shopper, journey, catering, duty-free and tourism names, whereas additionally lifting scrutiny on high-frequency indicators (mobility, home flight bookings, resort occupancy, field workplace, and retail receipts) as a real-time learn on confidence.
Hong Kong turns into the important thing regional venue for China beta in the course of the A-share closure. HKEX lists half-day buying and selling on Monday 16 February (Lunar New 12 months’s Eve) and full market holidays Tuesday 17 via Thursday 19 February, with regular commerce resuming Friday 20 February. Anticipate thinner depth, wider spreads and the next sensitivity to CN headlines.
Singapore additionally sees disrupted liquidity. SGX notes half-day buying and selling on 16 February, with the market closed 17–18 February. Regionally, the sensible market affect is a brief window the place positioning will get lighter, volatility may be jumpy on small flows, and “reopen gaps” turn into a characteristic, particularly if FX or commodities transfer sharply whereas China is closed.
