The Atlanta Fed’s preliminary GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 actual GDP progress got here in at 3.1% (annualized) as of February 20, pointing to a strong begin to the 12 months.
On the identical time, the advance estimate for This autumn 2025 GDP, launched as we speak by the Bureau of Financial Evaluation, confirmed progress of simply 1.4% — a notable draw back shock. That determine got here in 1.6 proportion factors under the ultimate GDPNow nowcast for the quarter, and nicely below the Atlanta Fed’s earlier 3.0% forecast.
The miss wasn’t restricted to the mannequin. Economist expectations have been additionally increased, with a Reuters survey displaying estimates starting from 1.5% to 4.2%, and a mean forecast of 3.0%. The hole between the modeled and precise This autumn outcomes highlights the current volatility in progress dynamics, whilst early Q1 monitoring suggests a possible reacceleration in financial exercise.
In This autumn 2025 U.S. GDP – Key Abstract
-
This autumn actual GDP (advance): +1.4% annualized
-
Q3 closing GDP: +4.4% (sharp slowdown into This autumn)
-
Client spending (PCE): +2.4%
-
Closing gross sales to home purchasers: +1.2% vs +2.6% anticipated (weaker underlying demand)
-
Core PCE inflation: +2.7% vs +2.6% anticipated (firmer than forecast)
A visible of the contributions confirmed Shoppers spending and funding added to progress however Authorities, and internet commerce have been drags
Takeaways
-
Progress slowed markedly from Q3, weighed down by authorities spending and a pointy drop within the contribution from internet exports.
-
Home demand (closing gross sales) got here in weaker than anticipated.
-
Core inflation ran barely hotter than forecasts, alongside the December PCE information launched concurrently.
-
2025 full-year GDP progress: ~2.23%.
