Bitcoin could also be shaping a bottoming structure that appears just like the formation seen on the finish of the 2018 bear market, in accordance with crypto analyst Osemka. After reviewing previous macro lows, the analyst is of the notion that the present Bitcoin setup will not be just like the 2022 cycle however as an alternative is nearer to the drawn-out descending sample that preceded BTC’s worth motion in 2019.
The comparability is predicated on a falling resistance construction, a possible liquidity sweep beneath $60,000, a bear market bottom, and the event of a bullish divergence on a number of timeframes.
Descending Construction Factors To Bear Market Backside
Bitcoin is presently buying and selling round $65,000, which means it has dropped by about half from its October 2025 peak worth of $126,080. By that measure, BTC has already entered bearish territory, and investor sentiment of utmost worry additionally helps that view.
In an analysis posted on X, Osemka defined that after reviewing all main macro lows on Bitcoin, the present setup resembles the 2018 bear market backside extra intently than the 2022 bear market backside. The chart he shared reveals a descending sample with a falling blue trendline that connects successive decrease highs made by Bitcoin’s worth motion in February.
The construction reveals worth buying and selling beneath the descending resistance, very similar to the late-2018 surroundings when Bitcoin continued to grind decrease. In accordance with the analyst, the current sample seems to be forming an identical liquidity setup, and Bitcoin’s worth is expected to gradually bleed lower earlier than a closing decisive transfer.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @Osemka8 on X
Liquidity Hunt To $60,000, 3D Bullish Divergence As Backside Sign
An necessary a part of Osemka’s backside prediction is the potential for a liquidity sweep slightly below $60,000. The chart features a dotted horizontal line close to that degree as a draw back goal the place resting liquidity might sit.
The thought is that if Bitcoin continues to comply with the 2018 worth motion, then it may proceed to fall and briefly dip below $60,000, which might then soak up sell-side liquidity earlier than stabilizing. If a comparable liquidity hunt unfolds, it may full the descending sample. Till then, the analyst’s message is endurance.
One other main issue highlighted within the chart is the formation of a 3D bullish divergence. This can be a case the place BTC prints decrease lows throughout a number of time frames, however a momentum indicator like RSI, MACD, or Stochastic makes the next low.
On the time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $65,100 and is simply a 7.8% correction transfer away from breaking beneath $60,000. Bitcoin is more and more vulnerable to breaking beneath this degree, with the worry and greed index at an excessive worry degree of 11. This development is reflected in persistent outflows from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds have now recorded five straight weeks of internet withdrawals.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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