Right here is my base case.
Greenland:
This can be a actual pet mission of Trump’s. He is an actual property man, it is the largest island on the earth and there are solely 56,000 folks there. Denmark is weak, there may be already a US base on the island and there are most likely plenty of pure assets ready to be found. Plus, imperialism is kinda enjoyable.
Panama canal:
Some mates in delivery have been complaining to him about the associated fee to make use of the canal they usually do not prefer it. America did construct the canal however American ships or these bringing items to America do not get any particular deal. In the meantime, it is one of many best monopolies in world historical past and funds all of Panama’s authorities, permitting the remainder of the nation to be a large tax-free cash laundering operation to fund issues just like the Trump Resort in Panama, which was as soon as the most important constructing in Latin America. In fact, that mission was one thing of a catastrophe (I lived there) and it was later re-named and he most likely holds a grudge.
Canada:
It was a lame joke that he is beating to loss of life.
Now for the enjoyable half.
(Warning: Don’t take this critically and definitely do not devise some form of buying and selling technique primarily based on it. That is for enjoyable)
What if I am flawed? What if there may be some form of technique right here?
The apparent reply is that it is a transfer to counter China. It could purpose to create some form of schism on the earth that places the Americas (or a minimum of the Caribbean and east coast of the Americas) firmly within the US sphere.
Panama Canal
I did a deep dive on China delivery, and surprisingly, blocking the Panama Canal would not be that huge of a deal. Just about all Chinese language items to Europe and Africa stream by the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. For locations like Brazil and Argentina, circling Cape Horn could be a reasonable delivery headache however would not materially change the economics or commerce with China. T
Two spots do stand out as more-vulnerable — Venezuela and Cuba. Each are precarious economies that may have important bother buying and selling with China if pressured to go the great distance. Practically half of Venezuela’s oil goes to China and 50-70% of it goes by the canal.
If Trump actually had imperial designs, then Cuba is unquestionably the start line and an invasion is just not one thing you broadcast prematurely however blocking its canal commerce and tightening the screws on the financial system even additional would lay the groundwork for regime change.
Greenland:
There may be some discuss of tightening Arctic delivery lanes as some form of grand-master technique however it would not make sense to me. Ships might use the Russian route as a substitute as it is not that a lot of a detour. Some folks see some form of international warming angle however to even get to Winnipeg, which is the coldest main metropolis on the earth, international temperatures would want to rise 5-7 levels Celsius. In that form of state of affairs, you’d have a complete breakdown in just about all the things.
I’ve to assume it is extra about exploiting assets which might be there, or may be there. It could improve US landmass by 23% and the financial prices could be low. I imply, even when you bribed each individual in Greenland with $1 million, that may solely be $56 billion. Evaluate that to the $200 billion already spent by the US in Ukraine or the $953 billion within the rip-off often called the Paycheck Safety Program.
On condition that tech bros have additionally taken over the Republican Celebration, it may be seen as a take a look at case for a way efficient they will run algos. In case you can manipulate an election, why not attempt to manipulate a rustic into becoming a member of the US?
If that works, then Greenland would simply be the take a look at case for…
Canada
As an example that Elon and the tech bros tweak the algo and Greenlanders be a part of the US willingly. There will not be bribes however the US cash will stream in and Greenlanders would have the choice of transferring to the US.
Not solely would it not obtain its objectives for Greenland, however it might turn out to be an incredible propaganda instrument, a minnow on the fish hook that may be used to catch the whale — Canada.
There may be the kernel of a plan there and Trump already hinted at the remainder of it, saying he would use ‘financial drive’ to persuade Canada to hitch. The US can wreck nearly any international financial system with the wave of a pen and Canada is extremely weak. The overwhelming majority if the financial system is directed to the US, with no options. The oil pipelines from Canada virtually all go in a single path, and even some vital Canadian pipelines for home use take a short-cut by the USA.
Now Canada can be the USA’s greatest export market so it might ship main ache to the US as effectively but when the US had been to steadily undermine Canada’s financial system through commerce and different under-handed strategies, whereas leveraging social media, it might have an opportunity. Drive the loonie to sub-50 cents and provide to merge at par and supply free motion right into a better-paying financial system and that is a compelling provide.
To be trustworthy, I feel the main drawback with it’s the Republican facet, as a result of when you had been to offer Canada the proportionate Home, Senate and electoral school votes, the US election outcomes could be very totally different. However Canada is insanely wealthy in useful resource wealth and in some form of robot-dominated, no immigration world, you possibly can run a formidable closed financial system.
Simply please god do not let this clown anyplace close to any form of negotiation:
Kevin O’Leary
