The upside risks are there: Why the second half of October could be positive

Nobody appears to be like sensible calling for inventory markets to go up, however you possibly can look sensible otherwise you may be proper so this is what I am considering:

The market acquired skittish in October.

To me, it wasn’t any single factor however a complete bunch directly:

1. September noticed an intense rally in inventory markets
2. Trump and China choosing a brand new commerce combat
3. The federal government shutdown
4. The common geopolitical uncertainty

Let’s skip forward to the top of the month and take into consideration what’s doable.

1. Shares have consolidated and October seasonals are good (getting even higher in Nov/Dec)
2. Trump continues to insist China is okay and leaders will meet Nov 1
3. The federal government shutdown will inevitably finish
4. There may be the tail threat of a ceasefire in Ukraine

Now I am not saying any of these issues are going to occur, and the timeline on others may bleed into November however I feel the dangers to all of these are optimistic developments. The drag could possibly be company earnings stories, which can actually begin to warmth up however up to now corporations have been pretty upbeat. At worst I feel it is a two-way threat.