Goldman Sachs makes a case that the gradual and gradual launch of delayed US financial knowledge ought to ““reveal a softer run fee for the financial system, notably the labor market, that may clear the best way for extra coverage easing and a weaker greenback from right here to the tip of the yr”. Including that early indicators ought to level in the direction of softer momentum, even when to this point what we’re seeing within the knowledge stays lagged – protecting FX volatility comparatively subdued typically.
In addition to that, a extra steady threat sentiment globally and Fed fee reduce expectations will simply add to headwinds for the greenback on this interval. After which there’s additionally different drivers resembling stronger intervention warnings by Tokyo in capping USD/JPY upside, the GBP not wilting after the extra benign UK funds, and renewed power within the CNY – all being supportive components for a softer greenback throughout the board.
In tying to the identical argument, Credit score Agricole pointed to a mess of various components in why the greenback must be weaker by means of year-end. From yesterday: Seasonal patterns, fundamentals level to greenback promoting in December – Credit score Agricole
